Overall: The region’s overall reading for April improved to a weak 47.9 from March’s 40.9. This marks the 14^th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the   rural business community. Approximately, 54.2% of bankers reported that their local economy was in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The April farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 26.1, down from 28.6 in March. This is the 32^nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral.

“The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” said Goss.

Farming and ranchland prices: For the third time in 2026, the region’s farm and ranchland price index sank below growth neutral to 48.0 from 50.2 in March. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have pushed farmland values lower,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. Even so, the April confidence index rose to a weak 39.1 from 29.5 in March. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.

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The Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2026, introduced by Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, advanced out of committee with a 34–17 bipartisan vote and now moves to the full House for consideration.

Agricultural organizations across the industry — including commodity groups, farm credit institutions, livestock organizations, and conservation leaders — have largely welcomed the progress. Many emphasized the urgency of updating farm policy as producers face rising input costs, market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and tightening margins.

The proposed legislation includes updates aimed at strengthening the farm safety net, improving credit availability, supporting conservation programs, expanding market opportunities, and reinforcing the economic stability of rural America.

While broad support exists for moving the bill forward, several organizations noted that additional improvements may be needed as the legislation continues through the legislative process.

For the agriculture industry, the advancement of a bipartisan farm bill is a meaningful step toward providing the certainty and long-term policy stability producers, manufacturers, and rural communities depend on.

FEMA will continue monitoring developments as the bill moves through the House and Senate in the coming months.

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According to new data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM), U.S. sales of combines rose 68% in January 2026 compared to the year before. Total sales of Ag tractors declined 4.7% during the same period. Meanwhile, Canadian sales of combines jumped 447.6% in January 2026 compared to 2025’s sales, while total Ag tractors sales improved 8.8% compared to the same time frame.

“After several months of challenging numbers, it’s encouraging to see a modest uptick in combine sales this January,” said Association of Equipment Manufacturers Senior Vice President Curt Blades. “Overall tractor sales continue to be soft indicating the overall state of farm economy and underscoring the need for more certainty in biofuels and global ag markets.”

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the12th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Due to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, approximately 75% of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector. Pullbacks in farm exports for 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, met January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by 25%.  Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 16.7 from 18.8 in January. “This is the 30th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment sales,” said Goss.

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The bill expands disaster assistance programs, including updates to the Tree Assistance Program for orchards, and adds plant pests to the definition of “natural disaster.” It establishes a framework for USDA to deliver disaster aid to specialty crop producers and creates standing authority for ad-hoc disaster block grants to states.

A contentious issue is pesticide regulation. The House Republican draft would prevent states and courts from penalizing manufacturers for label warnings that exceed EPA health thresholds. Supporters say it ensures regulatory consistency, while critics argue lawsuits are necessary to hold companies accountable.

On conservation, the bill reauthorizes the Conservation Reserve Program at its current 27-million-acre cap and supports voluntary, incentive-based conservation. It protects working lands programs such as EQIP and CSP while promoting precision agriculture and science-based standards.

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall praised the draft, citing needed updates to credit, conservation, research and rural development programs, while urging bipartisan action and additional support for farmers facing economic challenges.

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Darren Coppock says companies have largely absorbed higher costs tied to tariffs on ingredients used in pesticides and herbicides, but he warns that won’t last. “You’ve seen some projections already that show production costs are going to go up this year,” Coppock said, adding that tariff impacts are starting to “bleed all the way through into farm prices.”

He also says tariffs on lumber and steel are complicating efforts to expand domestic fertilizer production, citing elevated construction costs and a lack of predictability. Coppock told Brownfield that sudden tariff changes—and uncertainty about how high they will be or how long they’ll remain in place—make long-term investment decisions difficult when new plants require multi-year planning horizons.

Tariff concerns intensified over the weekend after President Trump threatened new 100% tariffs on Canadian products following Canada’s trade deal with China. Coppock noted that U.S. farmers rely on Canadian potash, a potassium based salt, and so far supplies and prices have remained relatively stable.

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Supporters argue expanded E15 access could strengthen the domestic biofuels market and benefit consumers, farmers, and fuel suppliers—especially in corn-producing states like Iowa. However, some small and mid-sized refining advocates warn the related exemption changes could hurt refinery economics.

Lawmakers have so far declined to attach the E15 provisions to a federal spending bill. Instead, they approved a measure establishing a rural domestic energy council to study the issue, delaying action on broader legislation. The delay has prompted criticism from farm and biofuel groups that have long pushed to expand ethanol market access.

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for January climbed to 52.0, its highest reading since July 2023, and up from December’s 50.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“More than one of three bankers, or 34.7%, indicated that their local economy was currently in a recession. Another 26.9% expect their local economy to experience recession conditions in the first half of 2026,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Regarding President Trump’s imposition of tariffs, almost four in 10 bankers, or 38.4%, support pulling back on tariffs.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, meets January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by .25%. Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 18.8, but was up from December’s even weaker 15.0. “This is the 29th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the impending $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment purchases,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above growth neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold for January with an index of 46.0, which was down from 52.5.  

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 44.0, its highest reading since February 2023, and up from 40.9 in December. “Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.

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The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128.

This month’s survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Summary

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

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For the 2024-2025 academic year, Dylan McEwen of Leonard, MO, is the $1,600 scholarship recipient while majoring in Agricultural Systems Technology.

Dylan plans to return to his family farm to expand their row crop, cattle, and hog operation, with goals to start a custom cattle feeding lot. He is active in the Agricultural Systems Technology and Agronomy Clubs, where he continues to build valuable skills and connections with peers and faculty.

“The scholarship has allowed me to go through school with less of a financial burden, so I can focus on my studies and maintain good grades,” Dylan shared.

This support is essential for students like Dylan who aim to innovate and sustain agriculture’s future.

The scholarship reflects FEMA’s ongoing commitment to investing in the next generation of farm equipment manufacturers and agricultural professionals who will drive the industry forward. Through scholarships like this, FEMA helps ensure the future of agriculture remains strong and innovative.

For more information about the Robert K. Schnell Memorial Scholarship or other opportunities within the College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, please contact CAFNR’s scholarship office at (573) 882-9003.