The rising count risks keeping exports subdued from the European Union’s top pork producer, benefiting other sellers in the bloc and the Americas. Meat buyers like Vietnam and Singapore have eased initial prohibitions on German supply, but a ban placed by top importer China is limiting the upside.

The earliest Beijing would consider lifting the ban is mid-year, according to a Rabobank report.

The virus has been found in wild boar in Germany’s east, although no pigs on farms have contracted it since an initial report from the fall, according to data from Brandenburg and Saxony.

The outbreak appears unlikely to end soon, with infections still abundant in neighboring Poland.

“Every week we’ve got several new cases, it’s far from under control,” said Tim Koch, livestock analyst at AMI. “Some countries are opening their border for German pig meat, but it’s all comparably low numbers. China imported more meat in the last year than all the other countries together.”

Officials from China and Germany recently held talks on the issue, and further negotiations are expected, the German agriculture ministry said. German wholesale pork prices have picked up from record lows at the onset of the outbreak as the country has been able to sell some of its excess supply within the EU.

Still, farmers are grappling with rising feed prices and added government regulations. Countries often aren’t declared free of swine fever until at least a year from their last case.

Source: Bloomberg

It is likely though that the vaccine is years away from commercial availability.

The drug, developed from a genetically modified prior strain of the virus, was effective in pigs when they were challenged 28 days after inoculation, the report said.

“This new experimental ASF vaccine shows promise, and offers complete protection against the current strain currently producing outbreaks throughout Eastern Europe and Asia,” said Douglas Gladue, the principal investigator at USDA, which developed the vaccine.

The virus has been most devastating for China. Hog herds have been decimated in the roughly 18 months since the outbreak began, and the impact has ricocheted across global markets. The virus is deadly to pigs but does not harm humans.

“Dr. Liz Wagstrom, the chief veterinarian for the National Pork Producers Council, said the council is optimistic about the vaccine, but there are still hurdles to clear, one of which is to identify a commercial partner that could take that vaccine and adapt it, so it can be mass produced in a commercial facility. The vaccine also requires more testing before it reaches the federal approval process.

“I would not want to guess how long,” she said, “but I would say a minimum of two years would be, I think, optimistic.”

Sources: Bloomberg, Brownfield Ag

These are just some of the measures Europe’s top pork producer is taking to try to thwart the deadly African swine fever (ASF) that’s roiled global meat trade and is moving ever closer to its borders. After it was detected in Belgium last year, the viral disease recently popped up across western Poland, placing it a few dozen kilometers from Germany on either side.

A confirmed German case would disrupt an industry deeply rooted in the home of bratwurst and frankfurters. Despite its relatively small size compared with producers like China or the U.S., Germany is a heavyweight in the global pork trade—accounting for 15 percent of the world’s exports in 2017.

The livestock industry in Germany remains in close contact with veterinarians about how to handle a potential outbreak. Authorities are practicing measures they would take to cordon off sick swine and restrict the movement of everything from trucks carrying pigs to hunters and joggers.

In ASF news elsewhere, Indonesia confirmed the country’s first outbreak in December. The news had been expected based on pig mortality rates.
As of mid-December, more than 1,700 farming operations had been hit by the virus in Eastern Europe.

Canada launched a vaccine center as part of its effort to defend against the virus, which does not pose a risk to humans but is highly contagious and fatal to pigs. A vaccine does not exist to combat the disease.

Analysts expect China to lose as much as 40 percent of its herd to the disease.

Sources: Bloomberg, Ohio Ag Net, Politico

That would be more than the value of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2017, the year before the trade war began. American producers sent about $19.5 billion in farm products to the Asian country that year, according to government data.

That estimate represents more than a 20-fold increase for pork and pork products. In 2017, U.S. pork exports to China and Hong Kong totaled $1.1 billion.

Dermot Hayes, an Iowa State University economics professor who performed the analysis for the National Pork Producers Council, said the projection was based on a “best-case scenario” in which China drops all tariffs and barriers to pork imports, including speeding up customs processing to allow for imports of chilled pork. He also assumed no U.S. domestic obstacles to ramping up production.

The Asian country had a 12 percent duty on frozen pork before the trade war and has now added a 60 percent punitive tariff. China’s current customs process restricts imports of non-frozen U.S. pork.

The pork producers group released the forecast as they pressed the Trump administration to emphasize access for pork products in ongoing talks with Beijing.

The spread of African swine fever has ravaged China’s hog herd and by September had driven up the price of pork more than 69 percent from a year earlier.

“The U.S. pork industry is missing out on an unprecedented sales opportunity in China when it most needs an affordable, safe and reliable supply of its favored protein,” said David Herring, president of the producer association.

Source: Bloomberg

The gains came after Chinese officials and U.S. counterparts reached a deal in which the U.S. would allow imports of Chinese cooked chicken and seafood products in exchange for China scrapping the ban on U.S. poultry shipments. The pact, reached amid the broader trade dispute between the countries, caused poultry stocks to pop.

The ban was instituted in 2015 in response to outbreaks of avian influenza in the U.S. Lately, however, China has struggled with an outbreak of African swine fever that has cost the country roughly 40 percent of its hog herd and initiated a scramble for alternative proteins.

Prices for chicken in the U.S. have yet to jump like the shares of producers have, but they are expected to rise alongside shipments to China.

“It can and likely will move U.S. poultry prices higher,” said Dennis Smith, a commodities broker with Archer Financial Services Inc. “Seeing China drop this ban…simply confirms that they need protein.”

The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics said recently that prices for Chinese pork had risen 69 percent from a year earlier due to the African swine fever epidemic. The USDA projects that China’s swine herd will fall to 275 million pigs, from 428 million pigs in 2018.

Source: Wall Street Journal

“They’re simply front-running the Chinese with everyone becoming fully aware of the demand wave about to hit,” Dennis Smith, senior account executive at Archer Financial Services, said.

Export sales jumped to 351,000 metric tons two weeks ago as Mexico and China each snapped up the biggest weekly hauls in USDA data going back to 2013.

China’s weekly purchases of 152,600 tons tops the previous record of 142,200 tons from the week before.

China continues an aggressive meat-import program as African swine fever devastates herds.

China has also pledged to boost imports of American agriculture goods such as pork and soybeans amid thawing tensions in the U.S.-China trade war. That as the world’s biggest pork producer sees domestic output plunge the most since at least 2009.

Mexico, typically the top buyer of U.S. pork, bought 132,400 tons for the week, almost double the previous record set in mid-2014. Japan’s purchases also surged.

Source: Bloomberg

Prices for many cuts of beef were advertised higher this week than at this time last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A common variety of ground beef sold for an average of $3.75 a pound this week, for instance, up nearly 20 percent from a year earlier.

The rally coincides with the continued spread of African swine fever in Asia. The virus—fatal for pigs but harmless to humans—was found in South Korea in September, after surfacing in North Korea in May. As of last week, 145,000 pigs have been culled in South Korea, the government reported.

The disease has devastated hog herds in China, the world’s largest pork market. Roughly 1.17 million hogs have been culled there since August 2018 in an effort to stop the disease, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. This widespread slaughter has pushed the price for pork in China up 69 percent.

The U.S. beef industry is aiming to fill some of that protein deficit. Beef exports to South Korea are already 8 percent higher than last year, totaling 174,290 metric tons through August, according to the U.S. International Trade Commission.

Exports to Japan were 3 percent lower in that time frame, but demand is expected to pick up as meat supplies tighten in the region. A U.S.-Japan trade deal reached in August also will likely boost demand. The agreement reduces or removes tariffs on some $7 billion in U.S. agricultural goods exported to Japan annually, including beef.

Source: Wall Street Journal

“As we see more countries where we have these outbreaks happening, it does nothing but increase our risk here,” he said. “We have to be on top of our game here as far as making sure that our customs and border patrol are inspecting at the border, inspecting tourists that might be bringing some of these materials in, and also don’t forget about the mail system.”

He suggests farmers improve biosecurity efforts and discourage far-flung friends from visiting.

“It’s probably not a great time to be having international visitors on your farm just because of the risk that could be there,” he said.

ASF does not impact human health or food safety.

Source: Brownfield Ag News