Farm Equipment Sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 14.6 from 16.7 in July. “This is the 24th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August confidence index weakened to 27.8 from 36.0 in July. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss. “On average, bankers expect farmland prices to fall by 2.9% over the next 12 months,” he said.

Source:

June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:

• The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
• Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
• For the 13^th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22^nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
• Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.  

According to Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, MN., “Flyover country is being ignored despite relatively solid growth prospects. Customers remain cautiously positive and willing to invest.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22^nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 13^th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.

Banking: The June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May. The checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for June slipped to 52.0 from May’s 52.1. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.

Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, July 17, 2025.

Source:

“Despite another one-year extension of the farm bill, and $20.8 billion in farm disaster relief, the farm (grain) economic outlook remained weak for the first half of 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices, thus maintaining profitability,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

“Despite another one-year extension of the farm bill, and $20.8 billion in farm disaster relief, the farm (grain) economic outlook remained weak for the first half of 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices, thus maintaining profitability,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 17.4 from December’s 14.3, which was the lowest reading since October 2016. “This is the 18th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index rose slightly to 42.0 from 41.3 in December. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven grain prices for some farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 11 months of 2024 rose by $673.4 million to $11.6 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 6.2% gain. Mexico was the top destination for 2024 ag exports, accounting for 48.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 42.3 from December’s 37.5. “Improving, but still weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss.

Source:

Overall: The region’s overall reading for November climbed to a soft 50.2 from October’s very weak 35.2. It was the highest reading since July of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices. Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm Equipment Sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016, and was down from 18.8 last month. “This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and Ranching Land Prices: For the sixth time in the past seven months, farmland prices sank. However, the region’s farmland index improved to a weak 44.4 from October’s six-year low of 38.5. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below break-even grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” said Goss.

Interest Rates: Approximately 64.3% of bankers recommended that the Federal Reserve make no change to short-term interest rates at its December meeting. The remaining 35.7% advocated a 0.25% reduction.

Banking: The November loan volume index declined to a solid 58.9 from a strong 73.1. The checking deposit index fell to 59.3 from 63.7 in October. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments sank to 53.7 from 63.5 in October. The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 24 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for November was unchanged from October’s 50.0.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The November confidence index increased to a weak 46.4, its highest level since March 2022, and up from October’s 29.6. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to place banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss.

Home and retail sales: Home sales sank to 42.6 from October’s weak 46.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region were very weak with a November reading of 42.0, up from October’s even weaker 36.0.

Source:

April 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:

For an eighth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the April survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for April increased to 45.8 from 38.0 in March, or its lowest level since June 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the eighth straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for April improved to a weak 47.7 from March’s 30.4, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. “This is the 10^th time in the past 11 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index rose to a solid 56.5 from March’s 56.0. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for 53 consecutive months. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices for 2024. Approximately 17.4% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from March levels,” said Goss.

“Even with weaker farm conditions, only approximately 0.9% of bankers reported an upturn in farm loan delinquencies over the past six months. This is slightly below last month’s 1.0% when the same question was asked,” said Goss.

Approximately half of bank CEOs reported that ethanol production was very important to their local economy.

Terry Engelken, past president of Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa, reported that, “We have a biodiesel plant and that does not need a pipeline (to transport CO2). There is a new technology that converts the CO2 to methanol and thus would end the need for the pipelines.”

Banking: The April loan volume index soared to a strong and record high 85.4 from 79.2 in March. The checking deposit index sank to 52.2 from March’s 62.5. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to a still strong 71.7 from 72.9 in March.

James Brown, CEO of Hardin County State Bank in Eldora, Iowa, said, “Farm operating lines of credit will increase this year due to the loss of working capital on most financial statements for 2023. There is still a reasonable amount of working capital on most balance sheets, but cash flows show breakeven levels at current prices with a normal crop year.”

Hiring: The new hiring index for April climbed to 56.8 from March’s 52.2. “Approximately 13.6% of bankers reported an increase in hiring over March levels,” said Goss. Over the past 12 months, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that the regional Rural Mainstreet Economy boosted jobs by 2.6%, compared to 0.9% for urban areas of the same states. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to 37.5 from March’s 36.0. “Weak and falling agriculture commodity prices, farm exports and higher interest rates over the past several months continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

Source:

As a result of strong farm financial conditions, the Farm equipment-sales index climbed to 61.4, its highest level since June of last year, and up from 60.4 in December. The index has risen above growth neutral for 24 of the last 26 months.

After six straight months of below growth neutral readings, the Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) climbed above the growth neutral threshold, 50.0, for a second consecutive month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy continues to experience improving, but slow, economic growth.Almost 85% of bankers ranked rising input prices as the top economic challenge or threat to farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s .

Banking: The January loan volume index declined to a still solid 58.0 from 72.1 in December. The checking-deposit index increased to 70.0 from December’s 48.1, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments soared to 72.0, a record high, from 51.9 in December. 

Joseph Anglin, Chief Financial Officer at Pioneer Bank & Trust in Rapid City, S.D., said, “One of the bigger challenges in many markets, much like Farm Credit, is the tax-exempt advantage of credit unions that don’t follow their federal mandate.” â€śHigher farm input costs, greater farm equipment sales and drought conditions in portions of the region supported strong borrowing from farmers. At the same time, higher interest rates encouraged greater CD purchases by farmers,” said Goss. 

Hiring: The new hiring index for January increased to 53.9 from December’s 49.1. Labor shortages continue to be a significant issue constraining growth for Rural Mainstreet businesses.

 Confidence: The slowing economy, higher borrowing costs and labor shortages continued to constrain the business confidence index to a weak 40.4 from 29.6 in December. “Over the past 10 months, the regional confidence index has fallen to levels indicating a very negative outlook,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

The Creighton University Overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) fell below growth neutral for a sixth consecutive month, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Last month, almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment-sales index jumped to a strong 59.5 from October’s weak 47.8. The index has risen above growth neutral for 22 of the last 24 months.

This month, bankers were asked if their bank was asking for greater upfront financial commitments for farm loans. Only 13.6% indicated an increase in such commitments. The remaining 86.4% reported no change in upfront commitments for farm loans.

Farming and ranching: The region’s farmland price index rose to 68.2 from October’s 58.0. This was the 26th straight month that the index has climbed above 50.0.

Bankers were also asked their expectations for the direction of farmland prices in the next 12 months. Approximately, 60.9% expect farmland prices to plateau at current prices, while 21.7% expect prices to decline over the period. The remaining 17.4% of bankers expect prices to expand, but at a slower pace.

Banking: The November loan volume index dropped to a still strong 65.8 from 76.8 in October. The checking-deposit index increased to 47.7 from October’s 34.0, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments slipped to 45.5 from 46.2 in October.

“Higher farm input costs, greater farm equipment sales, and drought conditions in portions of the region supported strong borrowing from farmers,” said Goss.

Confidence: The slowing economy, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 27.3 from 30.8 in October. “This is the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

• The overall index fell below growth neutral for the first time since September 2020.
• More than 9 of 10 bankers ranked recession risk above 50%.
• On average, bank CEOs expect net farm income for grain farmers to be 12.6% above 2021 levels.
• The region’s farmland price index moved higher marking the 21st straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral.
• Escalating costs of farm inputs pushed borrowing up to its highest reading since May 2019.

OMAHA, Neb. — The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) fell from May’s solid reading, sinking below growth neutral for the first time since September 2020, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for June slumped to 49.8, its lowest level since September 2020, and down from May’s 57.7. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

This month, bankers were asked their U.S. recession expectations for the next 12 months. Approximately 92.9% rate the likelihood of a U.S. recession above 50%. Only 7.1% rated a recession probability below 50%.

“Much like the nation, the growth in the Rural Mainstreet economy is slowing. Supply chain disruptions from transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages continue to constrain growth. Farmers and bankers are bracing for escalating interest rates — both long-term and short-term,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s .

Jon Schmaderer, CEO of Tri-County Bank in Stuart, Neb., reported that “fuel prices are starting to have a severe negative impact on rural Nebraska.”

Farming and Ranching: : The region’s farmland price index for June advanced to 76.8 from May’s 72.0, marking the 21st straight month that the index has moved above growth neutral. Over the past several months, the Creighton survey has registered the most consistent and strongest growth in farmland prices since the survey was launched in 2006.

So far in June, Peoples Company Appraisal Team tracked 32 cropland auctions across 17 Iowa counties. In total, 4,305 acres of cropland sold in auctions for $57.8 million, or an average of $13,426 per acre.

On average in June, bank CEOs expect 2022 net farm income for grain farmers to be 12.6% above 2021 levels.

Jim Eckert, president of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., reported that “in our area all crops are planted and looking good but are behind other years due to cool weather and insufficient rains.”

Farm equipment sales: The June farm equipment-sales index climbed to 71.4 from May’s healthy 66.9. This was the 19th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral. Readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since the beginning of the survey in 2006.

Banking: The June loan volume index rose to 78.5, its highest reading since May 2019, from last month’s 73.0. The checking-deposit index increased to 57.4 from May’s 54.0, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments sank to 35.2 from 38.0 in May. “Escalating costs of farm inputs pushed borrowing up to its highest reading since May 2019,” said Goss.

Hiring: The new hiring index fell to 57.4 from 61.5 in May. Labor shortages continue to be a significant issue constraining growth for Rural Mainstreet businesses. Despite labor shortages, Rural Mainstreet expanded non-farm employment by 2.6% over the past 12 months. This compares to a faster 3.3% increase for urban areas of the same 10 states for the same period of time.

Confidence: Surging energy prices and rocketing agriculture input prices constrained the business confidence index to 33.9, its lowest level since May 2020. This marks the lowest back-to-back readings since the beginning of the pandemic in April and May 2020.

Home and retail sales: The home-sales index dropped to a solid 55.4 from May’s 61.5. The retail-sales index for June sank to 48.2 from May’s growth-neutral 50.0. “Rising energy prices and higher interest rates reduced home and retail sales on Rural Mainstreet,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. It provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey and launched it in January 2006.

Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, July 21st, 2022.

 summarize the survey findings.

The overall index for January rose to 52.0 from December’s 51.6. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

The January farm equipment-sales index rose to 54.5, its highest reading since April 2013, and up from 50.2 in December. After 86 straight months of readings below growth neutral, farm equipment sales bounced into growth territory in December.

“Recent sharp improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support payments, and Federal Reserve’s record low short-term interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy in a solid and positive growth range. However, the rural economy remains well below pre-pandemic levels,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., chair in regional economics at Creighton University.

“Bankers reported that their biggest economic concerns for 2021 are excessive inflation and higher long-term interest rates,” Goss said.

This year, about 44 percent of bank CEOs expect low loan demand to be the greatest issue facing their banks for 2021. Only 7 percent of survey respondents considered that a top concern a year ago.

Likewise, a year ago, 32 percent of bankers indicated that rising loan defaults and bankruptcies were their greatest concern. This year, 4 percent of survey respondents noted that as their top concern.

The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, declined slightly to a still healthy 60.0 from December’s 62.9.

This survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The index focuses on about 200 communities with an average population of 1,300 in 10 states.