Kansas is facing severe drought (D2) across 9% of the state, with 24% in moderate drought (D1) and 24% abnormally dry. Despite these challenges, 57% of Kansas corn is rated good, with soil moisture predominantly adequate.

Colorado’s drought conditions have slightly improved, with less than 1% in severe drought (D2). The state saw varied rainfall and some severe storms, but soil moisture remains mostly adequate. Colorado’s corn crop is 64% emerged, with 63% rated good.
Other states like North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska report minimal drought conditions, while states including Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin face abnormally dry conditions. Indiana, Kentucky, Minnesota, Ohio, and Tennessee remain drought-free.

Drought categories are indicated on the above map as follows:
• D3 extreme drought – Red
• D2 severe drought – Dark orange
• D1 moderate drought – Light orange
• D0 abnormally dry – Yellow
• None – Drought Free – White

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The Wall Street Journal reported in early August that water levels in the Mississippi River from St. Louis to Memphis were 10 to 20 feet lower than a year ago. After a brief spring flooding event earlier in the year, U.S. Geological Survey data shows that river levels have plummeted 20 feet since May.

American agriculture is heavily dependent on the aquatic highway of the Mississippi, which is traversed annually with barges hauling commodity crops like corn and soybeans south, and crop-protection chemicals, fertilizer, gasoline and diesel fuel north.

Dairy products, too, see a fair bit of barge transportation. Raw milk, cheese, butter, whey, yogurt, powdered milk, and ice cream mixes all rely in part on bulk transportation via Mississippi barges from some regions of the country. Considering one barge can carry the load of 70 fully loaded semi-trucks, it’s a very efficient means of transportation, when systems are operational.

But with the river’s current, low levels, barge traffic is being slowed by efforts to keep the river navigable. Last fall, under similar conditions, the Army Corps of Engineers dredged the Mississippi 12-18 hours a day to keep the water channel open. When the river is low, barges also carry lighter loads to stay afloat, increasing transportation rates.

Freights costs for Mississippi River transportation are running 3-4 times above normal, which hits farmers in both directions. They pay more to ship their goods down the river, plus additional premiums on the inputs upon which they rely to be shipped back up from refineries in the south.

Meanwhile, international trade is being hampered by a similar situation at the Panama Canal. According to RaboResearch, a special advisory was issued in July to adjust Panama Canal traffic and mitigate the impacts of the extended dry season. The number of vessels allowed through the canal daily was lowered from 36 to 32.

Gatun Lake, the man-made lake in Panama that is integral to the operation of the canal system, currently is about 7% below its 5-year-average water level. Nearly 35% of global maritime trade volumes pass through the Panama Canal annually.

A rainy October could restore the canal to normal passage rates. But if water levels remain low, RaboResearch predicted current measures will stay in place, resulting in lower throughput, shipping delays, and higher costs. If a vessel misses its booking appointment to pass through the canal due to backed-up traffic, it may have to wait up to 2-3 weeks for a new slot at the canal.

Rabo noted that the Panama Canal is a vital route for U.S. agricultural exports to Asia. In 2022, the U.S. sent more than 26% of its soybean exports and 17% of exported corn through the canal, much of which was destined for Asia. Analysts predict that if water levels at the canal remain low, U.S. grain exports will be heavily impacted.

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Hot weather combined with lingering drought issues in the region raised concern for heat stress among the corn crop. Precipitation was at the 11th lowest in 30-plus years for the final week of July in the Corn Belt. The heaviest precipitation fell in the eastern Corn Belt, where there are fewer drought issues.

The heat relaxes somewhat in the first week of August, week ending Aug. 5, but the week overall will still trend slightly warmer than normal. According to forecasts from , this will be the 13th warmest first week of August in 30-plus years for the Corn Belt. Southern areas will see a better chance of hotter weather while temperatures cool relative to the prior week across the core of the Corn Belt. 

Precipitation chances will continue to be scattered in the first week of August. It also can be expected to trend drier than normal in the Corn Belt. According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture, 59% of the United States corn crop was in an area experiencing drought as of July 25. Drought continues to impact a large portion of the major corn crop area of the Corn Belt going into August. Abnormally dry and drought conditions will have a better chance of expanding rather than contracting through the first half of August which could put crop yields in jeopardy.

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Brian Fuchs with the National Drought Mitigation Center tells Brownfield areas of Indiana, Illinois and Missouri experienced flash drought last month, but that’s changed. “Conditions were pretty good during planting season and there was pretty good moisture across much of the Midwest. Then over the last couple of weeks, we have seen this degradation and drought intensification and now we’re seeing more and more of that moderate drought being introduced in the Eastern Corn Belt.”

He tells Brownfield parts of Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska haven’t gotten much relief. “Northeast part of the state and Northwest Iowa – that area has been persistently dry for some time now and we’re starting to see that intensification of drought.  You can almost draw a line from Northeast Nebraska to down to Southwest Nebraska into Northeast Colorado and Northwest Kansas.”

Fuchs says the Delta region has experienced variable conditions. “For much of that area, we’re seeing pretty good conditions right now. Again, they had that flip of the switch that we’ve seen in other parts of the country where conditions were worse. They’ve gotten better, but we’re seeing some of that drought and dryness start to develop back into those regions.”

According to the map, the position of the U.S. in drought increased to 44.3 percent, up two percent from last week and 5 percent from 3 weeks ago.