The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128.

This month’s survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Summary

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

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While optimism grew in the Index of Current Conditions, crop producers remain cautious, citing tighter margins and weaker profit expectations. The Index of Future Expectations held steady, suggesting farmers remain uncertain about what lies ahead. This month’s Ag Economy Barometer report highlights how diverging trends between livestock and crop sectors are shaping overall sentiment across U.S. agriculture.

For October, politics emerged as a frequent topic of discussion, likely influenced by the elections. Many producers expressed worries about potential policy changes impacting their farms and the agricultural economy, with regulation, environment and taxes featured prominently alongside price concerns.

When specifically asked about their worries for the upcoming year, respondents continued to point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their primary concerns. The trend of producers’ decreasing concern over interest rates continued this month, with only 15% citing it as a top worry in October, down from 26% in late 2023.

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Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the survey was taken when the September supply and demand report was released, and it contributed to the weaker outlook.

“About 70 percent of those we survey are crop producers,” he says. “When you look at the net returns in the crop sector, they’re not very good right now. We expected that group to be relatively pessimistic, drawing down that index of current conditions.”

One factor that appears to be influencing farmer sentiment is farmers’ perspectives on the multitude of policy changes implemented in the U.S. in 2025. For example, a substantial majority (71%) of U.S. farmers in this month’s survey reported that things in the U.S. today are “headed in the right direction.” However, when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run.

Over 80% of producers think it’s likely or very likely that, in the event that a trade war negatively impacts commodity prices, a program similar to 2019’s MFP will help compensate for agricultural product price weakness.

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“When we asked producers about what their expectations are going forward over a longer time period, 45% of them indicated that they expect to see bad times in the next 5 years,” said Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers still think things are better than a year ago, at least in terms of their overall sentiment.”

He says producers remain optimistic President Trump’s tariff policy will benefit U.S. agriculture.

“Although in the short run, what’s taking place with respect to tariff policy could be disruptive, in fact has been somewhat disruptive in respect to ag trade,” Mintert says. “The folks that we’ve interviewed here have pretty much decided that they’re willing to give it a chance and see how it plays out.”

Mintert says he continues to monitor how recent trade frameworks could impact farmer sentiment. He says the latest survey was conducted the first week of July.

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The sentiment boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

A key factor contributing to this month’s climb in farmer sentiment could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.’s long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.

To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” On average, 49% of respondents “strongly agreed” with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.

In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose “strongly agreed” in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms’ income.

While the uptick in sentiment is certainly notable, it’s important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers’ expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.

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The Farm Capital Investment Index at 61 was 7 points higher in April than in March, reaching the highest investment index reading since May 2021. There was a marked shift in the investment index following the November 2024 election. From May through October 2024, the investment index averaged a reading of 36, while from November 2024 through April 2025, the average index value was 54 — 50% higher than during the preceding six months. This month, one out of four respondents said it was a good time to make large investments, nearly double the percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to invest when surveyed from May through October of last year.

Although 25% of respondents this month reported that it’s a good time to invest, nearly two-thirds of producers in this month’s survey still said it was a bad time to invest, and that group’s view appears to be the driver behind weak new farm equipment sales so far in 2025. For example, the Association of Equipment Manufacturers reported that first-quarter 2025 sales of tractors over 100 horsepower declined 19% compared to 2024’s first quarter, while new combine sales fell 38% below a year earlier.  

The Farm Financial Performance Index changed little in April. At a reading of 101, the index was just 1 point below a month earlier. April marked the fourth month in a row that the index was above 100, indicating that producers expect financial performance this year to equal or slightly exceed the year-ago level.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index weakened in April to a reading of 110, which was 8 points below a month earlier. The decline in the index was primarily attributable to fewer producers reporting that they expect farmland values to increase in the year ahead, with a comparable increase in the percentage of producers saying they expect values to remain about the same.

The April survey included several questions focused on the impact of the U.S.’s tariff policy on U.S. agriculture. Although sentiment improved in April, farmers are still concerned that the U.S. government’s tariff policy will have a negative impact on farm incomes. Fifty-six percent of respondents to the April survey said they think the U.S. tariff policy will have either a negative or very negative impact on their farm’s income in 2025. In a related question, just over half (53%) of producers expect the increase in tariffs on imports to make it more difficult to obtain inputs from their suppliers this year. Producers who expect some difficulty in obtaining inputs pointed to three main areas of concern: fertilizer, parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals. Despite the concerns farmers expressed in the April survey about the impact of tariffs on farm incomes and availability of inputs for their farm operations, 70% of respondents said they expect the increased use of tariffs will, in the long run, strengthen the U.S. agricultural economy. 

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in April as farmers’ appraisal of both current conditions and their expectations for the future improved compared to March. Agricultural producers are concerned that the U.S. tariff policy will reduce farm incomes in 2025. However, in the long run, there is an expectation among a majority of producers that the U.S. tariff policy will actually benefit U.S. agriculture. Finally, just over half of producers in the April survey expressed concern about the imposition of tariffs making it more difficult to obtain inputs from their suppliers later this year. Concerns were focused on the availability of fertilizer, parts for farm machinery and electronics and crop chemicals.

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U.S. farmers are concerned about the future of U.S. agricultural exports and trade policy. Since 2019, barometer surveys have included a question that asks producers about their expectations for U.S. agricultural exports over the next five years. Historically, exports have been an important source of demand for U.S. agricultural production, and strong exports have often been associated with strong farm incomes. In 2019 and 2020, producers were optimistic that exports would grow over the upcoming five years, but that optimism began to erode in 2021 and has continued to fall since that time. In March, producers’ expectations for U.S. exports in the next five years reached an all-time low in barometer surveys, with the percentage of producers who expect to see exports fall (30%) nearly matching the percentage of producers who expect to see exports rise.

Since late 2022, barometer surveys have periodically included a question that asks respondents which policies or programs will be most important to their farm in the next five years. Prior to the November 2024 election, farmers in our surveys reported that they were more concerned about interest rate policy than trade policy. Since the November election, concern about trade policy has skyrocketed, with 43% of respondents, on average, citing it as the most important policy or program affecting their farm. That compares to an average of 13% of farmers since the election who pointed to interest rate policy as most important.

Coinciding with concerns about trade policy and the impact on U.S. agricultural exports is the potential impact on farm income. The March survey included a question that asked farmers about their expectations regarding the likelihood that a program similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP) would be available to compensate for lower output prices attributable to a trade war. Nearl two-thirds (65%) of respondents said they think a follow-up to 2019’s MFP program would be either “likely” (52%) or “very likely” (13%). In a related policy question, 74% of farmers in March said that passage of a new farm bill this year was either “very important” (49%) or “important” (25%) to them.

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Since 2020, each January barometer survey has included questions about farmers’ operating loans for the upcoming year. The percentage of respondents who said they expect to have a larger operating loan this year compared to a year ago rose to 18%, up slightly from last year’s 15%. In a follow-up question, producers who expect to have a larger loan were asked why their loan size was increasing. This year, 23% of farmers who expect their loan size to increase said it was because they were carrying over unpaid operating debt from the prior year, up from 17% last year and just 5% two years ago. The shift is reflective of the decline in farm income, particularly crop income, that has taken place in the last two years and could be an early sign that financial stress among producers is increasing.  

The future of agricultural trade is on many producers’ minds. When asked in January which policy or program will be most important to their farm in the next five years, 42% of respondents chose “trade policy,” which was more than double the percentage who chose “crop insurance program.” Unsurprisingly, there is significant concern among U.S. farmers that a trade war could break out that negatively impacts U.S. ag exports, although attitudes did appear to shift from December to January. Over the last three months, the percentage of U.S. producers who think a trade war is either “likely” or “very likely” has ranged from a high of 48% in December to this month’s low of 40%. Meanwhile, the percentage of producers who think a trade war is either “unlikely” or “very unlikely” rose to 29%, up from 21% in December.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment remained strong at the start of the new year, rising modestly from December to January. Farmers reported an improvement in current conditions on their farms due in part to increases in crop prices from early December to mid-January. Farmers expect conditions to improve as the Future Expectations Index remains well above the Current Conditions Index. U.S. producers expect 2025 to be better than 2024, as the Farm Financial Performance Index is at its highest level since late 2021. However, producers are concerned about the future of agricultural trade, with over 40% of respondents citing “trade policy” as the most important policy for their farm in the next five years and 40% of producers saying that they think a trade war is either “likely” or “very likely.”

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�ճ����Index of Future Expectations dropped just 8 points to 153, leaving that index 59 points higher than in September and 29 points above the October reading.

�ճ����Index of Current Conditions declined 13 points to 100, indicating that producers’ appraisal of current conditions in U.S. agriculture and on their farms is weaker than their views regarding the future. Despite this month’s decline, the Current Conditions Index remains 24 points above its September low and 5 points higher than in October. Optimism about the future appears to be motivated primarily by producers’ expectations for a more favorable policy environment in the years ahead.

The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points in December to a reading of 48. This month’s decline came on the heels of a 13-point rise in November. The percentage of respondents who said it’s a good time to invest declined to 17% compared to 22% a month earlier, while the percentage of farmers who said it’s a bad time for investments rose slightly to 69%, up from 67%. The investment index’s decline mirrored that of the Farm Financial Performance Index, which fell 8 points in December to 98.

Farmers’ future outlook for their farms and the agricultural sector remains noticeably more positive than at the end of summer. The drivers behind producers’ improved outlook for the future appear to be expectations for policy shifts following the November 2024 election. Expected policy shifts include environmental, estate and income tax policies.

Prior to the election, over 40% of producers said they expected to face more restrictive environmental regulations over the next five years. Following the election, less than 10% of producers said they expected a more restrictive regulatory environment.  Before the election, 40% of farmers in our survey said they expected estate taxes to rise in the future. After the election, fewer than 10% said they look for estate taxes to rise within the next five years.

Additionally, leading up to the election, nearly four out of ten (38%) producers said they expected income taxes to rise in the future. Following the election, that percentage also fell below 10%. Finally, over half (55%) of respondents to the December survey said they expect the fall 2024 election outcome to lead to a stronger farm income safety net than was in place prior to the election.

One area of concern for U.S. farmers continues to be the future of international trade in agricultural products. Both the November and December barometer surveys asked producers about the likelihood of a ”trade war” breaking out that has a negative impact on U.S. agricultural exports. Results reveal that many producers are concerned about this possibility. In December, 48% of farmers said they think a “trade war” that negatively impacts agricultural exports is either likely (32%) or very likely (16%). That’s up from 42% of respondents who felt that way in November. On the other end of the spectrum, just 21% of December’s respondents said that a “trade war” was either unlikely (17%) or very unlikely (4%). That’s down from 26% of farmer respondents who felt that way in November. Finally, when asked which policies or program will be most important to their farm in the next five years, “trade policy” emerged as the top choice in December, selected by 43% of producers, with “crop insurance program” trailing as the second-most common response at 17%.

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The Current Conditions Index also rose in October but by a smaller amount. With a reading of 95, the Current Conditions Index confirmed that farmers think economic conditions this year are worse than last year and weaker than during the barometer’s base period of 2015-2016, which was in the early days of a multi-year downturn in the U.S. farm economy. Producers this month expressed some optimism that economic conditions will improve and not precipitate an extended downturn in the farm economy. The October barometer survey took place from October 14-18, 2024.

The overall improvement in farmer sentiment is better understood by examining responses to the individual questions used to generate the barometer. Much of the sentiment improvement was attributable to producers possessing a less pessimistic view of the U.S. agricultural economy. For example, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for the U.S. agricultural economy in the upcoming year declined from 73% of respondents in September to 53% in October.

Similarly, the percentage of producers who expect bad times for U.S. agriculture in the next 5 years fell from 48% to 33%. Looking at a related question, fewer producers this month said they expect their farm’s financial condition to worsen over the next 12 months, with just 23% looking for conditions to worsen compared to 38% who felt that way in September.

However, despite the improvement in the main barometer indices, it’s clear producers financial situation deteriorated in 2024. For example, over half (56%) of the October respondents said their farm’s financial condition was worse than a year earlier. That was lower than reported in September but matches the response to this question in August.

The last question on each month’s survey provides respondents with an open-ended question asking them to share what’s on their minds. Figure 3 is a word cloud representation of responses received in the October survey. Unsurprisingly, politics was mentioned quite often, with the elections looming just a few weeks into the future. Perhaps more importantly, it’s clear that many producers were thinking about possible policy shifts that could impact their farms and the agricultural economy. Mentions of regulation, environment, and taxes were featured prominently, along with concerns about prices.  When asked explicitly about their biggest concerns for the upcoming year, producers still point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their biggest concerns. The trend of fewer producers citing interest rates as a top concern continued this month. Just 15% of producers, down from as much as 26% of producers in late 2023, chose interest rates as one of their biggest concerns in October.

One of the biggest surprises arising from this month’s survey was the increase in the Farm Financial Performance Index. The index is based upon a question that says, “As of today, do you expect your farm’s financial performance in the next 12 months to be better than, worse than, or about the same as in the past 12 months.” The October reading of 90 jumped 22 points above September’s and was just 2 points lower than a year earlier. High fall crop yields and a stress-free fall harvest season in the Corn Belt and Plains states likely contributed to the index’s rise. However, those two factors alone don’t account for the index’s sharp rise. The index’s improvement provides another indication that farmers’ optimism about the future shifted in October, leading to an expectation of better financial performance in 2025 than in 2024. Coincident with the rise in the financial index was a modest improvement in the Farm Capital Investment Index,which, at 42, was 7 points higher than in September, another signal that producers in October might be viewing 2024’s weak income prospects as transitory.

The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index tends to be correlated with financial performance expectations, and that was the case this month, with the index climbing up to 120, 25 points above the September reading. The long-term index also rose, improving to 159 versus 147 a month earlier. Once again, the rise in both farmland value expectation indices suggests that producers retain some optimism about the agricultural economy’s future strength, which, in turn, could support farmland values. 

Wrapping Up

The October Ag Economy Barometer survey revealed a surprising rebound in U.S. farmer’s sentiment. In a survey taken just three weeks before the U.S. presidential election, the Future Expectations Index rose 30 points compared to a month earlier. The future expectations index upturn was correlated with improvements in farmers’ outlook for farmland values and a somewhat more optimistic view regarding investments in their farm operations. Producers still have reservations about current economic conditions on their farms since, despite this month’s rise, the Current Conditions Index remains below 100, which indicates farmers still have a weak view of their current situation. Comments provided by survey respondents this month indicate that politics and policy are top of mind for many U.S. farmers. The November barometer survey, to be conducted one week following the presidential election, will provide an update on how the election’s outcome affects producers’ outlook.