“When we asked producers about what their expectations are going forward over a longer time period, 45% of them indicated that they expect to see bad times in the next 5 years,” said Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “Producers still think things are better than a year ago, at least in terms of their overall sentiment.”

He says producers remain optimistic President Trump’s tariff policy will benefit U.S. agriculture.

“Although in the short run, what’s taking place with respect to tariff policy could be disruptive, in fact has been somewhat disruptive in respect to ag trade,” Mintert says. “The folks that we’ve interviewed here have pretty much decided that they’re willing to give it a chance and see how it plays out.”

Mintert says he continues to monitor how recent trade frameworks could impact farmer sentiment. He says the latest survey was conducted the first week of July.

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An ag economist says ongoing trade uncertainty led to a decline in the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Professor emeritus Jim Mintert with Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture says farmers are less optimistic about the future.

“I think that decline, that loss of optimism about future ag export prospects really explains the change that we saw in that index of future expectations, and in turn was the driving factor behind the change in the barometer itself,” he says.

Mintert said that producers remain concerned trade tensions could impact their bottom line.

“People are still concerned about the possibility of a negative impact on farm income because of tariffs, but a little less so in both May and June than what we saw in March and April,” he says. “Longer term growth in the ag sector in the US historically has been strongly correlated with growth in exports.”

Mintert noted that the center will continue to monitor how new trade developments in the coming months could further impact farmer sentiment.

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When asked about their biggest concerns in the year ahead, the top choice among producers once again was high input costs, chosen by 34% of respondents. However, weak commodity prices were also on producers’ minds, as 29% of producers in the July survey pointed to the risk of lower crop and livestock prices as a top concern, up from 25% of respondents in June. Only 17% of respondents cited rising interest rates as a top concern, down from 23% in June, consistent with signals from the Fed that interest rates have peaked.

The Farm Financial Performance Index weakened by 4 points in July to 81, leaving the index 6 points lower than a year earlier. July’s decline followed back-to-back improvements in the index in May and June. The index’s fall reflects farmers’ concerns about the impact of weakening commodity prices combined with high input prices. Although the cost of production for principal crops, including corn and soybeans, has fallen year-to-year, output prices have declined even more, raising the possibility of a cost-price squeeze for U.S. crop producers.

Farmland leasing discussions for the 2025 crop year are starting to take place across the nation. This month’s survey asked farmers who grow corn, soybeans, wheat, or cotton what their expectations are for cash rental rates in their area. Nearly three-fourths (72%) of farmers who responded to the July survey said they expect cash rental rates to remain about the same as in 2024. The remaining respondents’ views on cash rental rates were split almost evenly between those who expect rates to rise (15%) vs. those who expect rates to fall (13%). 

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