That would be more than the value of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2017, the year before the trade war began. American producers sent about $19.5 billion in farm products to the Asian country that year, according to government data.

That estimate represents more than a 20-fold increase for pork and pork products. In 2017, U.S. pork exports to China and Hong Kong totaled $1.1 billion.

Dermot Hayes, an Iowa State University economics professor who performed the analysis for the National Pork Producers Council, said the projection was based on a “best-case scenario” in which China drops all tariffs and barriers to pork imports, including speeding up customs processing to allow for imports of chilled pork. He also assumed no U.S. domestic obstacles to ramping up production.

The Asian country had a 12 percent duty on frozen pork before the trade war and has now added a 60 percent punitive tariff. China’s current customs process restricts imports of non-frozen U.S. pork.

The pork producers group released the forecast as they pressed the Trump administration to emphasize access for pork products in ongoing talks with Beijing.

The spread of African swine fever has ravaged China’s hog herd and by September had driven up the price of pork more than 69 percent from a year earlier.

“The U.S. pork industry is missing out on an unprecedented sales opportunity in China when it most needs an affordable, safe and reliable supply of its favored protein,” said David Herring, president of the producer association.

Source: Bloomberg

“They’re simply front-running the Chinese with everyone becoming fully aware of the demand wave about to hit,” Dennis Smith, senior account executive at Archer Financial Services, said.

Export sales jumped to 351,000 metric tons two weeks ago as Mexico and China each snapped up the biggest weekly hauls in USDA data going back to 2013.

China’s weekly purchases of 152,600 tons tops the previous record of 142,200 tons from the week before.

China continues an aggressive meat-import program as African swine fever devastates herds.

China has also pledged to boost imports of American agriculture goods such as pork and soybeans amid thawing tensions in the U.S.-China trade war. That as the world’s biggest pork producer sees domestic output plunge the most since at least 2009.

Mexico, typically the top buyer of U.S. pork, bought 132,400 tons for the week, almost double the previous record set in mid-2014. Japan’s purchases also surged.

Source: Bloomberg

The announcement follows Beijing’s decision to lift punitive tariffs on soybeans, China’s biggest U.S. import.

Chinese buyers have “completed deals to buy soybeans and pork of considerable scale,” said ministry spokesman Gao Feng. He gave no details.

Negotiators are due to meet this month in Washington for a 13th round of talks aimed at ending the dispute over trade and technology.

President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, agreed in June to resume stalled talks. But there has been no sign of progress.

Trump agreed earlier to postpone a planned Oct. 1 tariff hike on Chinese imports until Oct. 15. That raises the possibility that the increase might be put off indefinitely if talks make progress.

Source: Associated Press