The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbed to 139 in November, 10 points higher than in October and the highest barometer reading since June of this year. The improvement in farmer sentiment was attributable to producers’ more optimistic outlook for the future, as the November Future Expectations Index reading of 144 was 15 points higher than in October, whereas the Current Conditions Index fell 2 points to a reading of 128.

This month’s survey was the first survey conducted since the late October announcement of a trade pact between the U.S. and China that included provisions for increasing U.S. exports of agricultural products to China, and survey respondents were notably more optimistic about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports. Sentiment was also buoyed by a sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Summary

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. Most farmers continue to think it is likely that they will receive supplemental income support from the USDA in the form of an MFP payment if prices are negatively impacted by U.S. tariff policies. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

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While optimism grew in the Index of Current Conditions, crop producers remain cautious, citing tighter margins and weaker profit expectations. The Index of Future Expectations held steady, suggesting farmers remain uncertain about what lies ahead. This month’s Ag Economy Barometer report highlights how diverging trends between livestock and crop sectors are shaping overall sentiment across U.S. agriculture.

For October, politics emerged as a frequent topic of discussion, likely influenced by the elections. Many producers expressed worries about potential policy changes impacting their farms and the agricultural economy, with regulation, environment and taxes featured prominently alongside price concerns.

When specifically asked about their worries for the upcoming year, respondents continued to point to higher input costs and lower output prices as their primary concerns. The trend of producers’ decreasing concern over interest rates continued this month, with only 15% citing it as a top worry in October, down from 26% in late 2023.

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Michael Langemeier, director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, says the survey was taken when the September supply and demand report was released, and it contributed to the weaker outlook.

“About 70 percent of those we survey are crop producers,” he says. “When you look at the net returns in the crop sector, they’re not very good right now. We expected that group to be relatively pessimistic, drawing down that index of current conditions.”

One factor that appears to be influencing farmer sentiment is farmers’ perspectives on the multitude of policy changes implemented in the U.S. in 2025. For example, a substantial majority (71%) of U.S. farmers in this month’s survey reported that things in the U.S. today are “headed in the right direction.” However, when asked specifically about whether they expect the increased use of tariffs to strengthen or weaken the U.S. agricultural economy, just over half (51%) said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run.

Over 80% of producers think it’s likely or very likely that, in the event that a trade war negatively impacts commodity prices, a program similar to 2019’s MFP will help compensate for agricultural product price weakness.

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The sentiment boost was driven by a more optimistic outlook on U.S. agricultural exports and a less negative view of how tariffs will impact farm income in 2025. The May barometer survey took place May 12-16.

A key factor contributing to this month’s climb in farmer sentiment could be linked to a more positive view of the U.S.’s long-run agricultural trade prospects. In May, 52% of producers said they expect agricultural exports to increase over the next five years, surging from 33% in April and the highest percentage of positive responses to this question since November 2020. Meanwhile, 12% said they believe exports will decline, down from 24% the previous month.

To better understand U.S. producer views on trade, the May survey revisited a barometer question first asked in the fall of 2020. Producers were asked to rate their agreement with the statement, “Free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries.” On average, 49% of respondents “strongly agreed” with the statement during the fall 2020 surveys.

In contrast, only 28% of respondents chose “strongly agreed” in May 2025. Additional evidence of changing views comes from responses to questions about the impact of U.S. tariff policies on their farms’ income.

While the uptick in sentiment is certainly notable, it’s important to recognize that producers are navigating a complex mix of optimism and caution. Producers’ expectations for exports and farm income have improved, but concerns remain about capital investment and, for some operations, the potential for labor shortages due to immigration policy changes.

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Producers in November were more optimistic about their farms’ financial performance than a month earlier, as the Farm Financial Performance Index climbed 14 points to a reading of 92. In particular, the percentage of producers who expect better financial performance this year rose to 24% from just 16% in October. A sharp rise in crop prices from mid-October to mid-November was a key reason behind the expectation for better financial performance.

Producers became more optimistic about future agricultural trade prospects in November. Responding to a question included in every barometer survey since January 2019, just 7% of respondents said they expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken in the next 5 years, down from 14% who felt that way in October and down from 30% who expected exports to weaken back in March. In a related question, 47% of corn producers responding to the November survey said they expect soybean exports to rise over the next 5 years, while just 8% said they expect soybean exports to decline. The improved trade outlook appeared to contribute to this month’s sentiment improvement.

For the second month in a row, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index rose, reaching 116 in November, 3 points above a month earlier and 10 points higher than in September. Farmers’ long-run perspective on farmland values also rose this month as the Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index climbed 4 points to a reading of 165, a new record high for the index. This month’s survey also asked corn producers about their expectations for cash rental rates for farmland in 2026. Nearly three-fourths of respondents (74%) said they expect rates in 2026 to be about the same as this year, which was very consistent with responses received in both July and August. The relatively strong cash rent outlook provides some support for farmland values.

Recent barometer surveys have included two questions that focus on farmers’ attitudes regarding 2025’s policy shifts. A majority of respondents, 59% in November and 58% in October, said they expect that use of tariffs by the U.S. will ultimately strengthen the agricultural economy. However, that is lower than last spring, when 70% of respondents said they expected tariffs to strengthen the agricultural economy in the long run. More producers in recent months reported being uncertain regarding the long-run impact of the U.S. tariff policy. In October and November, 16% and 17% of survey respondents, respectively, said they were uncertain about the impact that tariff policy will have, roughly double the 8% of respondents who felt that way in April and May. Meanwhile, two-thirds (67%) of farmers in the November survey said the U.S. is headed in the “right direction”, down from the 72% who felt that way in October.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment improved in November, with the rise attributable to an improvement in the Index of Future Expectations. Strengthening crop prices contributed to the improved outlook for the future, as did a more optimistic outlook for agricultural exports. Producers were more optimistic about farmland values in both the short and long run this month. A majority of producers expect U.S. tariff policies to prove beneficial to the agricultural economy in the long run, but the percentage of respondents who said they are uncertain about the impact was roughly double the percentage who said they were uncertain last spring. Finally, two-thirds of producers said that “things in the U.S. today are headed in the right direction”, but that was lower than a month earlier, while the percentage who chose “wrong track” rose from 28% to 33%.

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This month’s decline in the barometer takes farmer sentiment back to the average level observed from fall 2015 to winter 2016, a period when farm incomes were declining sharply. The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year’s farm income downturn to last for an extended period. Data collection for the August survey took place from August 12-16, 2024.

Over the last several months, farmers’ concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident in barometer surveys. In the August survey, producers’ concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices. This month, 30% of respondents picked lower commodity prices as a top concern compared to 33% who chose high input costs. This was a marked departure from a year earlier when just 20% of survey respondents pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern for their farm operation. At the same time, fewer respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

The August Farm Financial Performance Index fell 9 points below a month earlier and was 14 points lower than a year ago. This month’s reading was the weakest response to the financial performance question since July 2020, when COVID-related lockdowns still dominated the headlines. Consistent with expectations for weak financial conditions, producers again signaled that the investment climate in production agriculture is also poor as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31. This month’s investment index was also 6 points lower than a year earlier and matched the index’s all-time lowest reading.

Despite concerns about the farm income outlook, most farmers in our survey still say they expect farmland cash rental rates for the 2025 crop year to remain unchanged. This month, 70% of U.S. crop farmers in our survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to stay about the same, with just 16% of respondents reporting that they anticipate declining lease rates.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment weakened sharply in August as the Ag Economy Barometer index fell 13 points compared to July. The August reading of 100 places farmer sentiment on par with sentiment in late 2015 and early 2016 when the U.S. ag economy was in the early stages of a downturn.

Farmers were most pessimistic about near-term conditions, as the current index fell 17 points below a month earlier. Sentiment weakness was driven by expectations for weak farm financial performance and extended to a weak outlook for capital expenditures by farm operations. Although the short-term farmland index remained above 100, signaling that more survey respondents still expect values to rise over the next year than look for values to decline, it’s clear that farmers are less optimistic about farmland values this summer than in recent years. Notably, the short-term farmland index posted its lowest reading since spring 2020.

Despite the weakness in farmer sentiment and expectations for weak farm financial performance, 70% of crop farmers in this month’s survey said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain about the same in 2025 as in 2024.

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The Farm Financial Performance Index rose three points in June to a reading of 85. There’s been a tendency in recent years for producers’ financial performance expectations to bottom out in spring and improve as the spring crop growing season progresses. This year seems to be following that pattern as the index has risen nine points over the last two months.

The capital investment outlook weakened slightly in June as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell three points to a reading of 32, which leaves the index just one point higher than its all-time low. More producers this month said now is a bad time to make large investments than in May, with no change in the percentage of producers who said it’s a good time to invest. Interest rate concerns appear to be affecting farmers’ investment outlook. Over the last several months, the percentage of producers citing rising interest rates as a top concern for their farm operation has been rising. In February, 18% of survey respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern.

Once again, this month’s survey asked respondents if they or one of their landowners had been approached about a possible Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project from an ethanol plant. This month, 8% of respondents said they had been in contact about a CCS project. The vast majority (93%) of respondents who had contact with a company about a CCS project reported that payment rates offered were less than $25 per acre, with just 8% of producers reporting payment rate offers of $50 or more per acre. 

Sixteen percent of respondents this month said that, within the last six months, they had discussed with a company a farmland lease for solar energy production. That’s down slightly compared to April and May, when 19 and 20 percent of respondents, respectively, reported solar leasing discussions taking place. Lease rates have been rising since we first collected data on solar leasing in 2021. This month, 69% of respondents said they were offered a long-term lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more, up from just 27% in June 2021. This month’s survey included a more detailed list of lease rate options for respondents to choose from, and 27% of respondents said they were offered a lease rate of $1,500 per acre or more. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the lease contract they discussed included an annual escalator clause. Among those respondents who reported discussing an escalator clause, the most common escalator range was from 2 to 3 percent per year.

Wrapping Up

Weaker expectations for the future were responsible for a modest decline in this month’s Ag Economy Barometersentiment index. Farmers long-term farmland value outlook weakened slightly in June after approaching an all-time high last month. The percentage of farmers reporting that they are concerned about rising interest rates has been increasing, which could be one reason why farmers’ future expectations, along with their outlook on capital investments and long-term farmland values, all dipped compared to a month earlier. In areas of the country where leasing of farmland for solar energy production is taking place, lease rates being offered continue to rise. This month, 69% of respondents who reported a solar leasing discussion said they were offered a long-term solar lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more.

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The Farm Financial Performance Index climbed to 82, up 6 points compared to April. The index is based on a question that asks producers to compare their farm’s expected financial performance to last year. Despite this month’s improvement in the index, it remained 15 points lower than at the end of last year indicating that producers still expect 2024 to be a more challenging year financially than 2023.

Producers’ outlook on capital investments improved in May, but producers maintained a cautious attitude towards investments as the Farm Capital Investment Index came in at a reading of 35. Although the 4-point rise pulled the index off its all-time low reading of 31, this month’s survey still indicated that 77% of respondents feel it’s a bad time to make large investments, while just 12% of respondents said it was a good time to invest. Interest rates and relatively high prices for farm machinery and new construction were the two primary reasons cited for this being a bad time to make large investments. Among those producers who think it’s a good time to invest, nearly half (45%) said they felt that way because of high inventories at machinery dealers.

Interest in leasing farmland for solar energy production continues to rise. In both the April and May surveys approximately 20% of survey respondents, up from just 12% in March, said they have discussed leasing farmland for solar energy production in the last six months. Like April’s survey results, over half (55%) of respondents said they were offered a long-term lease rate of $1,000 per acre or more, and 27% said they were offered more than $1,250 per acre. Combining results from both the April and May barometer surveys, approximately 30% of respondents who have discussed leasing with a company have signed a solar energy lease on farmland they control. 

Summary: Farmer sentiment improved in May following a sharp decline in April. Increases in crop prices provided producers with a somewhat more optimistic financial outlook, which helped boost producer sentiment. Although sentiment and financial performance expectations improved in May compared to April, they both remain weak from a longer-term perspective. There was a small uptick in the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectation Index in May, but sentiment about farmland values in 2024 remains weaker than last fall. Interest in leasing farmland for solar energy production continues to rise as 1 out of 5 survey respondents reported discussing a solar energy lease with a company in just the last six months.

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In March, producers exhibited a heightened sense of optimism regarding short-term farmland values, as indicated by the Short-Term Farmland Values Index climbing to 124, marking a 9-point increase from the previous month. Notably, 38% of producers anticipate an increase in farmland values over the next year, compared to 31% in January and February. Several factors contributed to this positive outlook, including demand from non-farm investors, inflation expectations, and stronger cash flows. While an improved interest rate outlook may have played a role, it wasn’t specifically noted by producers in this month’s survey.

More farmers this month (24%) cited inflation expectations, up from 18% in the previous month. Additionally, there was a slight uptick in producers attributing the increase to strong cash flows (8% in March versus 6% in February), while mentions of non-farm investor demand saw a modest decline. Nonetheless, a majority (57%) of producers still view non-farm investor demand as the primary reason for their bullish outlook on farmland values.

Interest in utilizing farmland for carbon sequestration or solar energy production seems to be on the rise. In the latest survey, approximately 1 out of 5 respondents (18%) reported being approached about carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) on their farmland, while 12% engaged in discussions with companies interested in leasing farmland for solar energy projects in the last six months, up from 10% in February. Regarding long-term farmland lease rates offered by solar energy companies, over half (54%) of respondents this month were offered $1,000 or more per acre, with just over a quarter (27%) being offered $1,250 or more per acre.

The March barometer survey included several questions focused on farmers’ policy expectations following the fall 2024 elections. Eighty percent of this month’s respondents said they are concerned that, following the fall 2024 elections, there will be government policy changes affecting their farms in the years ahead. Forty-three percent of respondents said they think regulations impacting agriculture will be more restrictive following the elections, while just 18% said they expect a less restrictive operating environment. Four out of ten producers (39%) said they think taxes impacting agriculture will rise following the fall election while half of respondents said they expect no change in agriculture’s tax environment.

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Both sub-indices exceeded their year-ago levels in November. The Current Conditions Index increased by 15% and the Future Expectations Index was up 11% when compared to November 2022. The improved perception among U.S. farmers regarding their farms’ financial condition and prospects contributed to this month’s more positive sentiment reading. 

The November reading of the Farm Financial Performance Index improved to 95, up 3 points compared to a month earlier. The index, which is based upon a question that asks producers to compare their farms’ financial performance this year to last year, was 10% higher than at the outset of this fall’s harvest in September and up 25% compared to its lowest point of 2023 back in May. Comparing responses received in May to those in the November survey highlights the change in producers’ perspectives about farm income. When comparing the two surveys the biggest shift was movement toward expecting financial performance to be about the same as last year and away from expecting worse performance than a year ago. In November just 22% of respondents said they expected worse financial performance than a year earlier whereas in May the percentage expecting worse performance was 38%. At the same time, the percentage of respondents expecting financial performance to be about the same as a year earlier rose to 61% in November from 48% who felt that way in May.

The Farm Capital Investment Index rebounded to a reading of 42, up 7 points from October. So far in 2023, the index has ranged from a high of 45 in July to a low of 35 reached in October. Sixteen percent of respondents in this month’s survey said now is a good time to make large investments, nearly matching this year’s high point of 17% which was reached in July. Surveys conducted from July through November 2023 have asked respondents who think it’s a good time for large investments why they feel that way. The percentage of respondents choosing “strong cash flows” has been drifting lower since summer when approximately 40% of respondents chose that as their primary reason. This month just 22% of respondents chose “strong cash flows” with “higher dealer inventories,” chosen by 29% of respondents, claiming the top spot for why now is a good time to make large investments. The rise in the percentage of farmers pointing to higher dealer inventories could also be an indication that farm equipment price rises are starting to moderate.

When asked what their biggest concerns are for the upcoming year, producers continue to point to “higher input costs,” with nearly one-third (32%) of respondents choosing that as a top concern, followed by “rising interest rates” (26% of respondents) and “lower crop and/or livestock prices” (20% of respondents). Compared to responses from the beginning of this year, fewer producers chose higher input costs while more respondents chose rising interest rates and lower crop/livestock prices.

Producers’ perspective on farmland values changed very little in November compared to October. The Short-Term Farmland Values Expectation Index remained unchanged at a reading of 125, while the long-term index dropped back by 5 points to a reading of 151. The short-term index has been in a range of 125-126 since June, while the long-term index has been in a range of 151-156 over that same time frame. Over 80% of respondents who expect farmland values to rise over the next five years said the main reason for optimism is ”non-farm investor demand” (59% of respondents) or “inflation” (23% of respondents).

This month’s survey responses were collected the same week that Congress passed an extension of the 2018 Farm Bill to September 30, 2024. Anticipating the possibility that Congress would extend the current Farm Bill into 2024, the November survey asked survey respondents who have a corn and/or soybean enterprise which farm safety net program they would choose for 2024. Among those respondents who expressed a preference for one program over the other, just over two-thirds of them said they planned to sign up for the ARC farm program, with nearly one-third anticipating that they would enroll in the PLC program, assuming Congress extended the 2018 Farm Bill’s provisions to 2024. However, for both corn and soybeans, there was a lot of uncertainty among producers concerning which program they would choose in 2024. When asked to identify the program they would choose for soybeans, just over half (52%) of respondents declined to choose either program. For the corn enterprise, over four out of ten (43%) of producers declined to choose between ARC and PLC.

Wrapping Up

Farmer sentiment in November improved for the second consecutive month as the Ag Economy Barometer climbed 5 points above the prior month. The primary driver behind this month’s sentiment improvement was improved farm financial performance expectations among survey respondents. The Farm Capital Investment Index also rose during November, although respondents who said it was a good time to invest were more likely to point to rising dealer inventories of farm equipment as a reason than strong farm cash flows. Farmers continue to be relatively optimistic about future values for farmland as the short-term farmland index held steady while the long-term index drifted lower.

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