Farm Equipment Sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 14.6 from 16.7 in July. “This is the 24th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The August confidence index weakened to 27.8 from 36.0 in July. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss. “On average, bankers expect farmland prices to fall by 2.9% over the next 12 months,” he said.

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June 2025 Survey Results at-a-Glance:

• The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) rose to its highest level since July 2023.
• Bank CEOs expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income.
• Bankers reported very low farm loan delinquency rates over the past six months.
• For the 13^th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.
• Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 22^nd straight month.
• Regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first four months of 2025, compared to the same 2024 period, fell from $4.5 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025 for a decline of 18.5%.
• Mexico was the top destination for regional ag exports, accounting for 55.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

“This is only the third time in two years that the overall index has moved above growth neutral. Despite the significant increase for the month, on average, bankers expect approximately one in four farmers to experience negative income for farmers in their area,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Regarding the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decision this week, three out of four bank CEOs agreed with the Fed’s decision to maintain the current rate. Approximately 22.2% recommended a 0.25% (25 basis points) rate cut, while the remaining 3.7% argued for a 0.25% rate increase.  

According to Casey Regan, CEO of Premier Banks in Maplewood, MN., “Flyover country is being ignored despite relatively solid growth prospects. Customers remain cautiously positive and willing to invest.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 22.7 from 23.9 in May. “This is the 22^nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 13^th time in the past 14 months, farmland prices slumped below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price increased slightly to a weak 40.9 from 39.6 in May. “Elevated interest rates, higher input costs and volatility from tariffs have put downward pressure on farmland prices. On average, bankers expect one in four farmers in their area to experience negative 2025 income,” said Goss.

Banking: The June loan volume index declined to 73.1 from 75.0 in May. The checking deposit index fell to 40.4 from May’s 45.8. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments dropped to 50.2 from 60.4 in May. Federal Reserve interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 31 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for June slipped to 52.0 from May’s 52.1. Job gains for non-farm employers have been positive but soft for the last several months.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a frail 37.0 from May’s 30.0. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.

Tables 1 and 2 summarize the survey findings. Next month’s survey results will be released on the third Thursday of the month, July 17, 2025.

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“Despite another one-year extension of the farm bill, and $20.8 billion in farm disaster relief, the farm (grain) economic outlook remained weak for the first half of 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices, thus maintaining profitability,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

“Despite another one-year extension of the farm bill, and $20.8 billion in farm disaster relief, the farm (grain) economic outlook remained weak for the first half of 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices, thus maintaining profitability,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 17.4 from December’s 14.3, which was the lowest reading since October 2016. “This is the 18th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index rose slightly to 42.0 from 41.3 in December. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven grain prices for some farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first 11 months of 2024 rose by $673.4 million to $11.6 billion from the same period in 2023 for a 6.2% gain. Mexico was the top destination for 2024 ag exports, accounting for 48.1% of total regional agriculture and livestock exports.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index rose to 42.3 from December’s 37.5. “Improving, but still weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss.

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023, and down from 41.7 in June.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 11th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. â€śThis is the 12^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After falling below growth neutral for two straight months, farmland prices rose above the growth neutral threshold for July. The region’s farmland increased to 52.2 from June’s 49.9. “Only 8.7% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from June levels,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down $198 million, or 3.6%, from the same period in 2023.

Banking: The July loan volume index stood at a very strong 67.4, but down from June’s 79.2. The checking deposit index increased to a weak 45.5 from June’s 34.8. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments rose to 65.9 from 63.0 in June.

Interest Rates: Bankers were asked their recommendations for Federal Reserve interest rate actions for the rest of 2024. Almost half, or 47.8%, advocate for two rate cuts of one-quarter of one percentage point, or one-half of one percentage point.

Hiring: The new hiring index for July improved to 50.0 from June’s 47.7. In terms of economic risks for the region for the next 12 months, over half, or 52.2%, indicated a recession as the greatest risk, 26.0% named an upturn in inflation, 17.4% identified a debt crisis and 4.4% specified little or no economic risks for the next 12 months.

Home and retail sales: After expanding to a strong 62.5 in June, the home sales index tumbled to July’s 33.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region, much like that for the nation, were very weak with a July retail index of 39.1, down from 41.3 in June. “High consumer debt, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

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“Higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 10th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s .

According to James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa, “Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for June dropped to 31.8 from 34.0 in May. “This is the 12^th time in the past 13 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above the growth neutral threshold for 53 straight months, the region’s farmland slumped below growth neutral for a second consecutive month to 49.9, but it was up from May’s 47.9. “Only 4.3% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from May levels,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a very weak 29.2 from May’s 28.8. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and farm exports, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

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April 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:

For an eighth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the April survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for April increased to 45.8 from 38.0 in March, or its lowest level since June 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the eighth straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for April improved to a weak 47.7 from March’s 30.4, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. “This is the 10^th time in the past 11 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index rose to a solid 56.5 from March’s 56.0. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for 53 consecutive months. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices for 2024. Approximately 17.4% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from March levels,” said Goss.

“Even with weaker farm conditions, only approximately 0.9% of bankers reported an upturn in farm loan delinquencies over the past six months. This is slightly below last month’s 1.0% when the same question was asked,” said Goss.

Approximately half of bank CEOs reported that ethanol production was very important to their local economy.

Terry Engelken, past president of Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa, reported that, “We have a biodiesel plant and that does not need a pipeline (to transport CO2). There is a new technology that converts the CO2 to methanol and thus would end the need for the pipelines.”

Banking: The April loan volume index soared to a strong and record high 85.4 from 79.2 in March. The checking deposit index sank to 52.2 from March’s 62.5. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to a still strong 71.7 from 72.9 in March.

James Brown, CEO of Hardin County State Bank in Eldora, Iowa, said, “Farm operating lines of credit will increase this year due to the loss of working capital on most financial statements for 2023. There is still a reasonable amount of working capital on most balance sheets, but cash flows show breakeven levels at current prices with a normal crop year.”

Hiring: The new hiring index for April climbed to 56.8 from March’s 52.2. “Approximately 13.6% of bankers reported an increase in hiring over March levels,” said Goss. Over the past 12 months, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that the regional Rural Mainstreet Economy boosted jobs by 2.6%, compared to 0.9% for urban areas of the same states. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to 37.5 from March’s 36.0. “Weak and falling agriculture commodity prices, farm exports and higher interest rates over the past several months continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

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