Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, addressed the situation, stating, “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can.” Gold urged both port stakeholders to return to negotiations, adding, “We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike.”

Import volumes reflect strategic moves. U.S. ports handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in October, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase, according to the report. Despite a slight decline from September, this surge underscores retailers’ strategic decision to frontload goods ahead of potential disruptions. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted, “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office.” Hackett also pointed to unresolved labor contract issues, including automation, as a key sticking point.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts November’s import volume at 2.17 million TEUs, a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and December at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3%. Total TEU volumes for 2024 are projected at 25.6 million, marking a 14.8% rise from 2023.

The NRF-led coalition of trade associations has emphasized the economic risks of labor disputes and broad-based tariffs, urging renewed negotiations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, which are critical nodes in the U.S. supply chain. Hackett further commented on the tariff uncertainty, explaining, “It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”

Retailers face a delicate balancing act, navigating a volatile landscape where strikes and tariff increases threaten to disrupt supply chains and increase costs. The Global Port Tracker underscores the need for strategic planning, with projections through April 2025 reflecting ongoing import pressure.

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Regional shipping companies across the U.S. are expanding their operations to pick up business from bigger rivals, seeking to capitalize on labor uncertainty at United Parcel Service and FedEx and growing reluctance among merchants to rely on a single carrier. 

The push comes as the e-commerce boom that fueled carriers’ growth has faded and inflation-weary shoppers begin to pull back on purchases. Some small carriers say that despite the slowdown, they see an opportunity to build on the gains they made during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

LaserShip/OnTrac, the largest regional carrier, is expanding its delivery network into Texas this year. Lone Star Overnight, a Plano, Texas-based carrier with a network in Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri, plans to open a major sorting facility in Chicago next year.

In the past, retailers typically gave all their packages to one carrier to maximize volume and reap bigger discounts.

“The new normal is to use a multi-carrier strategy for different types of packages for different locations,” said Krish Iyer, vice president of strategic partnerships at Auctane, a shipping and software solutions company.

Before the pandemic, regional that sometimes rely on the Postal Service for last-mile deliveries made up 6% to 7% of the parcel market, according to data from ShipMatrix Inc., a parcel analytics firm. Now it is around 8% to 9%, as carriers say they picked up substantial volumes from shippers who told them UPS and FedEx had insufficient capacity during the pandemic.

Many shippers say they don’t want to be beholden to an individual carrier, even as capacity constraints have eased. 

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“There are signs that spot rates could fall to pre-pandemic levels swiftly on the widening demand-supply gap (as seen in the BDI), but we maintain that contract rates should settle above their pre-pandemic levels and that capacity discipline will keep spot rates from lingering at trough levels,” Jain said.