Corn

As of May 17, 76% of this year’s corn crop has been planted in the , according to the USDA. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 70%.

The USDA said 39% of the corn crop in all 18 states states has emerged, which is ahead of the five-year average of 37%.

Soybeans

As of May 17, 67% of the soybean crop in the nation’s  was in the ground. That’s markedly ahead of the five-year average of 53%.

The USDA said 32% of the soybean crop in all 18 states has emerged, which is ahead of the five-year average of 23%.

Winter Wheat

The USDA reported that 71% of the winter wheat crop across 17 of the  has headed as of May 17. The five-year average is 58%.

Winter wheat condition for the week that ended May 17 was as follows:

• Good/excellent: 27%
• Fair: 30%
• Poor/very poor: 43%

Last week at this time, 28% of the crop was in good/excellent condition. Last year at this time, 52% of the crop was in good/excellent condition.

Spring Wheat

In the , 73% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, ahead of the five-year average of 66%.

Across the six states, 39% of the spring wheat crop had emerged as of May 17, ahead of the five-year average of 34%.

Oats

Across the , 87% of planting is complete, according to the USDA. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 82%.

Sixty-two percent of the oat crop across the nine states has emerged, just behind the five-year average of 63%.

The oat crop condition for the week that ended May 17 was as follows:

• Good/excellent: 46%
• Fair: 31%
• Poor/very poor: 23%

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Market watchers are closely monitoring these developments as they could influence commodity prices and planting decisions next season.

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Compared to 2023, corn production costs per bushel decreased across all regions, with lower fertility, power, and land costs driving reductions of up to 66 cents. Corn yields increased statewide, averaging 235 bushels per acre—seven bushels higher than the previous record. Soybean costs per bushel fell in most regions, except southern Illinois, where lower yields led to increased costs. Soybean production costs per acre declined across the state.

For 2025, projected corn and soybean costs are expected to decrease by 4% due to lower soil fertility expenses, though lower grain prices may offset savings. This data, provided by the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association, highlights key agricultural cost trends shaping Illinois crop production.

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Corn crop progress: As of May 4, 40% of the corn crop across the country’s top 18 corn-growing states had been planted. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 39%.

Eleven percent of the corn crop had emerged across 16 of the top corn-growing states as of May 4. That’s ahead of the five-year average by 2 percentage points.

Soybean crop progress: The USDA said that as of May 4, 30% of the soybean crop across all top 18 states had been planted. That’s notably ahead of the five-year average of 23%.

Winter wheat progress: The USDA reported that 39% of the winter wheat crop across 12 of the top 18 states had headed as of May 4. The five-year average is 33%.

For the week ending May 4, the condition of the nation’s winter wheat crop was as follows: Good/excellent: 51%, Fair: 31% and Poor/very poor: 18%.

Spring wheat progress: In the top six spring wheat-growing states, 44% of the crop had been planted as of May 4. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 34%.

Thirteen percent of the spring wheat crop had emerged across all six states by May 4.

Oat crop progress: Across the nine top oat-growing states, 71% of the season’s planting is complete, according to the USDA. That’s ahead of the five-year average of 64%.

A total of 69% of the crop has emerged, across all nine states, 48% of the oat crop had emerged by May 4, five points ahead of the five-year average.

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Corn crop progress: The USDA says as of May 19, 70% of the 2024 corn crop has been planted in the top 18 corn-growing states. This is up from 49% the week prior but still behind the five-year average of 71%. This is the third consecutive week corn planting progress has fallen behind the average pace.
Corn is emerging in all of those states, with 40% out of the ground. That’s up from 23% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 39%.

Soybean crop progress: USDA says soybean planting progress is at 52%, up from 35% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 49%. Soybeans have emerged in all of the top 18 growing states, with 26% out of the ground. That’s up from 16% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 21%.

Winter wheat progress: USDA says 69% of winter wheat has headed across 17 of the top 18 growing states. This is up from 57% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 57%.

Spring wheat progress: The USDA says spring wheat planting progress in the top six growing states is at 79%, up from 61% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 65%.
A total of 43% is out of the ground, up from 25% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 33%.

Oat crop progress: The USDA says across all nine of the top oat-growing states, 87% of the crop has been planted, up from 78% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 82%.
A total of 69% of the crop has emerged, up from 59% the week prior and ahead of the five-year average of 63%.

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As Brazilian and Argentine soybeans offer more competitive prices, U.S. share in China’s soybean imports has dropped significantly, falling to under a quarter last year compared to 51% in 2009. Traders point out that rising Chinese demand is increasingly being met by South American countries. One Singapore-based trader noted, “This year we have large soybean supply coming from Argentina which is going to heat up competition. U.S. share is already shrinking. They are going to lose more to Argentina this year.”

Political uncertainties in the U.S., particularly the upcoming presidential election, also contribute to the shift in Chinese buying patterns. Chinese traders are diversifying their sources to lower risks of supply disruptions that could result from political changes. A Shanghai-based trader remarked, “U.S. market share will continue to decline because you have the political backdrop of elections.”

To counter these challenges, U.S. growers are exploring newer markets like Southeast Asia and focusing on increased domestic demand for renewable fuels. However, Jeff O’Connor, a soybean farmer from Illinois, the top-producing state, acknowledges the difficulty in offsetting the loss of the Chinese market: “What we are losing internationally to China we cannot make up for domestically in one year’s time. We cannot replace that overnight.”

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Farmers already are paying Deere to use automation technology for tillage work this autumn, and the company is exploring recurring revenue models that will allow growers to use such enhancements as needed.

“We’re committing to have a total autonomy and automation solution for corn and soy in the US,” Chief Financial Officer Josh Jepsen said Wednesday on a conference call with investors. Advancements have been proving that “it’s technically possible, and I am really excited about it.”

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“We have this emerging sector called renewable diesel,” he said. “It (was) kind of the backwoods part of the energy complex up until last year. And then, there started to be waves of announcements of new renewable diesel facilities being constructed around the country.”

This has increased the demand for renewable fuel sources across the U.S. as clean energy incentives push energy developers to look for those sources, Marshall said.

“What that has done is it has led to really aggressive bidding for soybean oil,” he said. “We’ve seen bean oil go up pretty substantially. They’ve come down since cresting in June, actually hitting a record $0.74 a pound at the end of June.”

Prices remain about 40 percent higher than they were in January.

The trend has brought into balance the value contribution of soybean meal vs. soybean oil. Historically, meal accounted for 65 to 70 percent of the value of beans.

“So, what this is doing is, crushers are now effectively incentivized to crush for oil, rather than meal,” he said.

Marshall said soybeans rose to $16.60 per bushel in May—the highest price in 10 years.

Last week, however, USDA’s October Crop Production and WASDE reports caused the soybean market to tank.

Soybeans production is now expected to be 4.45 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last month. If realized, it would be a new production record.

Soybean prices fell following both the September Grain Stocks report, as well as last week’s USDA October supply-and- demand report.

Sources: Farm Progress, USDA

Kenneth Ehrp, a former general manager at a grain warehouse in Sioux Center, Iowa, pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit a “prohibited grain practice,” the Justice Department said.

Along with the federal prison time, Ehrp must pay a fine and prosecution costs of about $54,100.

Even after one customer discovered and pointed out a spiked soybean batch, Ehrp told workers to remix the slugged loads and sell them to the same customer. Of 87,996 bushels of grain searched by the USDA, only 34,354 bushels of soybeans were found even though all the bins were certified as wholly containing the oilseed, according to the DOJ.

Soybeans, trading near the highest levels since 2014, currently fetch almost four times the price of oats.

Another person involved in the scheme was sentenced to three months’ imprisonment earlier this year.

Source: Bloomberg