As trade attorney Greg Husisian noted, “In response, the administration has been using other trade laws, such as Section 232 and Section 301, to keep tariff pressure in place. The latest Taiwan adjustments fine-tune those tariffs while preserving the 15% ceiling agreed to in the bilateral deal.”

For equipment manufacturers, the agreement serves as a reminder that trade policy remains an important factor in cost management, component availability, and long-term supply chain planning.

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On April 9, Trump instituted a 90-day pause on a slew of country-specific tariff rates subject to his reciprocal tariff policy, instead maintaining a 10% baseline rate for most trading partners.

Since then, the U.S. has outlined a trade deal with the United Kingdom and agreed to a 90-day tariff reduction for imports from China.

“But it’s not possible to meet the number of people that want to see us,” Trump said after indicating that his administration has received interest in negotiating from 150 countries.

The administration is instead focused on “18 important trading partners” and “probably another 20 strong relationships,” Bessent told CNN on Sunday.

“President Trump has put them on notice that if you do not negotiate in good faith, that you will ratchet back up to your April 2 level,” Bessent said. The U.S. may also consider “regional deals” to cover smaller trading relationships in areas like Central America and Africa, he added, although he did not provide further details on what such pacts would entail.

The current pause on the Trump administration’s country-specific reciprocal tariffs is set to expire July 9. The suspension has temporarily lowered duties Trump hiked on countries such as Vietnam (46%), India (26%) and Japan (24%).

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Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, addressed the situation, stating, “Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can.” Gold urged both port stakeholders to return to negotiations, adding, “We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike.”

Import volumes reflect strategic moves. U.S. ports handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in October, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase, according to the report. Despite a slight decline from September, this surge underscores retailers’ strategic decision to frontload goods ahead of potential disruptions. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted, “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office.” Hackett also pointed to unresolved labor contract issues, including automation, as a key sticking point.

Looking ahead, the report forecasts November’s import volume at 2.17 million TEUs, a 14.4% year-over-year increase, and December at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3%. Total TEU volumes for 2024 are projected at 25.6 million, marking a 14.8% rise from 2023.

The NRF-led coalition of trade associations has emphasized the economic risks of labor disputes and broad-based tariffs, urging renewed negotiations at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, which are critical nodes in the U.S. supply chain. Hackett further commented on the tariff uncertainty, explaining, “It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”

Retailers face a delicate balancing act, navigating a volatile landscape where strikes and tariff increases threaten to disrupt supply chains and increase costs. The Global Port Tracker underscores the need for strategic planning, with projections through April 2025 reflecting ongoing import pressure.

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Shippers face potential disruptions if Trump implements planned tariff increases of 60%–100% on Chinese imports and 10%–20% on others. These tariffs, expected by late February or early March, could significantly raise consumer prices and freight costs. In preparation, companies are considering strategic inventory stockpiling, though production and shipping timelines complicate efforts.

Adding to the strain, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) could strike in mid-January, jeopardizing ports from New England to Texas. The ILA walked away from negotiations over automation disputes, leaving a critical Jan. 15 deadline unresolved. A similar three-day strike in October caused weeks of backlogs, particularly in Savannah, where congestion lingered long after other ports cleared.

With ocean freight taking 40–55 days to reach East and Gulf Coast ports from Asia, shippers are weighing risks. Some companies, like Everstream Analytics clients Whirlpool and AB InBev, are building inventories, but warehousing costs and supply-chain complexities remain significant hurdles.

Meanwhile, U.S. trade with China continues to shift. Chinese manufacturers are increasingly relocating to Mexico, exploiting tariff-free provisions under the USMCA, while Vietnam’s growing trade surplus with China raises concerns of indirect Chinese imports.

“Navigating these uncertainties is more than just stockpiling inventory,” said Corey Rhodes, CEO of Everstream Analytics. “The cost of warehousing and expediting freight are critical operational costs that need to be considered.”

Experts warn that shippers must act swiftly to address potential supply-chain bottlenecks. Logistics firm C.H. Robinson anticipates “strategic pull-forwards” of inventory to mitigate risks, with freight delays likely impacting markets from Southern California to the Gulf Coast. Failure to act could disrupt consumer access, escalate costs, and force companies to rethink long-term sourcing strategies.

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Key issues include demands for higher wages and resistance to port automation. ILA President Harold Daggett warns that government intervention, like invoking the Taft-Hartley Act, could lead to worker slowdowns.

A strike, especially during peak shipping season, could severely impact operations. Sea Intelligence estimates a one-day strike could cause delays lasting five days, while a week-long strike might result in slowdowns until mid-November. Daily freight at East Coast ports is valued at $3.7 billion, with potential delays raising consumer costs and disrupting supply chains.

The National Retail Federation and other groups urge government intervention, fearing even brief disruptions could harm the economy. The U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) is open to negotiations but fears the ILA is set on striking.

Both parties have engaged the Federal Mediation & Conciliation Service, but with the October 1 deadline approaching, a resolution remains uncertain.

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The CNBC Supply Chain Survey was conducted Oct. 21-Oct. 31 among logistics executives who manage freight manufacturing orders and transportation, including those at C.H. Robinson, SEKO Logistics, DHL Global Forwarding Americas, Kuehne + Nagel, OL USA and ITS Logistics. These companies have insight into the orders shippers place into manufacturing companies around the world because they pick up the product from the ports as well as distribute products from warehouses to retailers.

This part of the trade pipe gives investors a three-to-four-month advance insight into retail consumer expectations based on the number of orders placed and the amount of product they have truckers move from the warehouses to the stores. It also provides a read on freight rates and what kind of freight volumes will be moved by truck and by rail — two key revenue drivers for companies in the shipping sector.

Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, who participated in and reviewed the survey, tells CNBC the results indicate a freight market that will have little to no growth during the first half of 2024, which means stable to downward pricing, and hopes that during the second half of 2024 volume increases.

“Without more freight moving, 2024, and potentially 2025, will continue to see soft pricing as capacity outstrips demand,” he said.

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“Survey finds 76% of manufacturers are adopting digital tools to gain enhanced transparency into their supply chain.”

A recent survey from Deloitte, 2024 Manufacturing Outlook, looked at the changes expected with the supply chain. First a look at where the supply chain was last year. Despite the ongoing fallout from the pandemic, the report found that in the past year manufacturers saw a gradual improvement in delivery times. While average delivery time in July 2022 hit an all-time high of 100 days, by August 2023 that number had dropped to 87 days. While the authors of the report note this is a notable improvement, the average lead time for production materials has not returned to pre-pandemic levels.

One factor contributing to continued supply chain delays, which have continued for more than 30 months, is ongoing shortages in components such as electrical, electronic, and semiconductor parts, the report notes. There should be an improvement in the future, given the enactment of the CHIPS Act, which has increased investment in the semiconductor sector. The first plant is expected to begin production in 2024, followed by additional plants coming online in 2025.

“While this is expected to increase the domestic supply of chips, it may be a few years before these production facilities can make a significant dent in the ongoing semiconductor shortages, often affecting the manufacturing industry,” the report says.

Another factor which will cause an increase in demand for semiconductors as well as electronic components is the growth in clean technology spurred by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

To address these issues, manufacturers are looking to continue to digitize their supply chains. According to a recent Deloitte survey, 76% of manufacturers are adopting digital tools to gain enhanced transparency into their supply chain. Some companies are moving into using the metaverse as well. The survey found that manufacturers have also started experimenting with and implementing industrial metaverse use cases to fortify supply chain resilience. In the 2023 Deloitte and MLC industrial metaverse study, 21% of respondents said they are using metaverse technologies to elevate their supply chain ecosystem.

Also, distributed ledgers such as blockchains, or smart contracts, which automate contract execution within blockchains, are gaining interest from some manufacturers. About one-quarter of manufacturers surveyed plan to implement these technologies within the next year, hinting at a potential new wave of adoption and innovation.

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The Wall Street Journal reported in early August that water levels in the Mississippi River from St. Louis to Memphis were 10 to 20 feet lower than a year ago. After a brief spring flooding event earlier in the year, U.S. Geological Survey data shows that river levels have plummeted 20 feet since May.

American agriculture is heavily dependent on the aquatic highway of the Mississippi, which is traversed annually with barges hauling commodity crops like corn and soybeans south, and crop-protection chemicals, fertilizer, gasoline and diesel fuel north.

Dairy products, too, see a fair bit of barge transportation. Raw milk, cheese, butter, whey, yogurt, powdered milk, and ice cream mixes all rely in part on bulk transportation via Mississippi barges from some regions of the country. Considering one barge can carry the load of 70 fully loaded semi-trucks, it’s a very efficient means of transportation, when systems are operational.

But with the river’s current, low levels, barge traffic is being slowed by efforts to keep the river navigable. Last fall, under similar conditions, the Army Corps of Engineers dredged the Mississippi 12-18 hours a day to keep the water channel open. When the river is low, barges also carry lighter loads to stay afloat, increasing transportation rates.

Freights costs for Mississippi River transportation are running 3-4 times above normal, which hits farmers in both directions. They pay more to ship their goods down the river, plus additional premiums on the inputs upon which they rely to be shipped back up from refineries in the south.

Meanwhile, international trade is being hampered by a similar situation at the Panama Canal. According to RaboResearch, a special advisory was issued in July to adjust Panama Canal traffic and mitigate the impacts of the extended dry season. The number of vessels allowed through the canal daily was lowered from 36 to 32.

Gatun Lake, the man-made lake in Panama that is integral to the operation of the canal system, currently is about 7% below its 5-year-average water level. Nearly 35% of global maritime trade volumes pass through the Panama Canal annually.

A rainy October could restore the canal to normal passage rates. But if water levels remain low, RaboResearch predicted current measures will stay in place, resulting in lower throughput, shipping delays, and higher costs. If a vessel misses its booking appointment to pass through the canal due to backed-up traffic, it may have to wait up to 2-3 weeks for a new slot at the canal.

Rabo noted that the Panama Canal is a vital route for U.S. agricultural exports to Asia. In 2022, the U.S. sent more than 26% of its soybean exports and 17% of exported corn through the canal, much of which was destined for Asia. Analysts predict that if water levels at the canal remain low, U.S. grain exports will be heavily impacted.

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Zetwerk, a two-year-old startup connecting customers and manufacturers within the country, had never handled a U.S. order, but tapped its network of suppliers and delivered the parts. It is now a provider of everything from nail clippers to steel frames for U.S. customers, and is valued at $2.7 billion, with funding from Greenoaks Capital, Lightspeed India, Peak XV Partners and others.

India has been trying to lure some of the world’s biggest companies to set up new factories after repeated lockdowns under Beijing’s zero-Covid policy and rising geopolitical tensions with the West prompted many firms to look for alternatives to China, in a strategy referred to as â€śChina plus one.”

Venture capital in India has taken note. Investors such as Peak XV, which was Sequoia Capital India until in June it announced a split from the U.S. firm, and Lightspeed are increasingly trying to back founders whose businesses involve boosting India’s global exports. Previously, they had focused on generations of Indian startups that primarily targeted the Indian consumer market. 

Business-to-business e-commerce startups, such as Zetwerk, have seen increased deal activity in recent years, according to a PwC India report. Funding in that sector was more than three times as high in 2021 and 2022 as in the two years before that, according to data from Tracxn. 

No one expects India to replace China’s dominance as the global factory floor. India has struggled to expand its manufacturing sector, as firms faced red tape and weak infrastructure, while policy reversals have stung investors in the past. But Indian government incentives coupled with broader efforts to source materials from India—Walmart said in 2020 that it plans to triple its exports from India to $10 billion by 2027, for example—have made the country more attractive for investors. 

A Zetwerk electronics plant in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Business-to-business e-commerce startups such as Zetwerk have seen increased deal activity in recent years.

India’s manufactured exports were barely one-tenth of China’s in 2021, but they exceeded all other emerging markets except Mexico’s and Vietnam’s, according to World Bank data.

Beijing’s tensions with the West have given Indian firms an opening to connect with specific industries in the U.S. and other markets, even if they aren’t able to match the prices Chinese providers can offer, executives said.

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From product design and development to final delivery, AI is already being utilized in modern manufacturing factories to streamline production. AI techniques are being employed today to identify defects and other product issues, enable predictive equipment maintenance, and facilitate shipping and tracking, among other applications. Yet integrating AI into an existing operation is no small feat, and many manufacturers need help knowing where to start.

Following are six steps that manufacturers can take to navigate the AI journey.

Identify the top challenges you’re facing. It’s critical to be selective in defining the scope of your AI project, starting with a “wish list” of problems or challenges to resolve. This process could look like identifying the data that needs to be collected, relevant software and algorithms, and metrics for tracking project success. Goals should be focused, measurable and aligned with larger needs across the organization.

Thoroughly assess your data. Make sure you have access to high-quality data that can be cleaned and structured for AI purposes. It’s essential that the data accurately represents the real-world manufacturing process. While it’s easy for humans to disregard implausible values, flawed data can easily skew AI models. Complete data visualization is also key — by visualizing the data, you can obtain immediate insights into how to proceed, without the need for additional algorithms.

Develop a strategy. Thoroughly understand your existing infrastructure and your organization’s direction. Consider how you will deploy your AI models — in the cloud, on-premises, or in an air-gapped environment — and plan how to monitor and track the AI models’ success once they’re deployed. The lifecycle of AI models includes ensuring that they continue to perform as expected, and consistently addressing any issues that might arise after deployment.

Select your platform and software. Sensor data can quickly surpass the processing capabilities of a single machine. With this in mind, it’s important to have platforms, tools and repositories to handle larger volumes of real-time data processing. Consult with your AI building teams, which often include data scientists, data engineers, machine-learning engineers, software engineers and developers. These individuals can determine the most suitable tools for your organization’s use cases.

Ensure compliance, security and governance. Security considerations are paramount, and while open-source software offers the innovation of a broader community, it can also introduce increased security risks from vulnerabilities within software packages. Specifically, look for platforms that include user access controls and reporting on common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVEs), as well as a platform that creates an association between CVEs and software packages used by your teams in development or deployment.

Take a tailored approach. Manufacturing encompasses a large range of enterprises, spanning mass customization with computer-controlled machines, fully customized work, high-volume mass production with cost constraints, high-precision and low-volume production for specialized applications, and various combinations. A one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t apply here, so carefully considering your particular manufacturing type’s specific needs and goals is critical to effectively applying AI to address those needs.

When approaching AI implementation, carefully consider the diverse ways that AI can enhance efficiency and reduce costs. By diligently following each step, you’ll be well-equipped to make informed decisions about technology implementation, and fully reap the benefits of automation in your manufacturing operations.

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