A survey of 400 farmers and ranchers from across the country shows rising concern about the current state of the ag economy. However, producers remain optimistic President Trump鈥檚 tariff policy will benefit U.S. agriculture.
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Farmer sentiment weakened in June following two months of improvement, as tracked by the Purdue University -CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
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In a sharp turnaround from July, farmer sentiment nose-dived in August. The August Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 13 points. Weakening farm income prospects weighed on farmer sentiment as the outlook for a bountiful fall harvest were more than offset by declining crop prices.
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Farmer sentiment drifted lower in June as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reading of 105 was three points lower than a month earlier.
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Farmer sentiment declined sharply in April, as indicated by the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which fell 15 points from March to a reading of 99.
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Farmer sentiment took a downturn at the start of 2024 as the January Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell to a reading of 106, 8 points below a month earlier. Declining prices for key commodities weighed on agricultural producer sentiment in January.
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U.S. farmers鈥 sentiment changed very little in December compared to the preceding month. The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded a reading of 114, just one point lower than a month earlier.
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U.S. farmers鈥 sentiment weakened in August compared to July as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dipped 8 points to a reading of 115.
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Agricultural producers were slightly more confident about the farming economy in July, despite recent crop price volatility and continued concerns about rising interest rates.
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Farmer sentiment rebounded in June as the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer rose 17 points to a reading of 121.
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Farmer sentiment was unchanged in November compared to October, with the Ag Economy Barometer Index remaining at 102.
Read moreFarmer sentiment weakened again in October as the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to a reading of 102, down 10 points compared to a month earlier.
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The Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index drifted lower to a reading of 112 in September which was 5 points lower than a month earlier.
Read moreFarmer sentiment improved in August as the Purdue-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer index rose 14 points above its July reading to 117.
Read more鈥淚t鈥檚 not really a reflection of weak economic conditions on the part of producers . . . It just really is reflecting this concern about the future and this uncertainty about the future. That has people on edge and has them worried about where we鈥檙e headed.鈥
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Rising costs and uncertainty about the future continue to be a drag on farmer sentiment.
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Ag Economy Barometer slides lower, producers concerned about war鈥檚 impact on input prices. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy聽Barometer/James Mintert).Download Photo WEST
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More than 40 percent of producers in this month鈥檚 survey say that low farm machinery inventories are holding back their investment plans.
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Fifty-seven percent of producers who responded said they expect farm input prices to rise by 20 percent or more in 2022; 34 percent said they expect prices to rise by 30 percent or more.
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Nearly four out of 10 farmers who responded to the survey expect input prices to rise by more than 30 percent in the upcoming year.
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The Farm Capital Investment Index declined, which seems to be a function of supply chain problems as well as concerns about rising input costs.
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Rising input costs are on most producers鈥 minds.
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Fewer farmers this month said they planned to increase their machinery purchases than on the August survey. More than half say their farm machinery purchase plans have been impacted by low inventories.
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Producers are becoming increasingly concerned about rising input costs. Thirty-nine percent of respondents said they expect input prices to rise by 8 percent or more.
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Nearly half of producers surveyed said they expect input costs to rise by at least 8 percent in the next year. Such costs have risen by 1.8 percent per year over the last decade.
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About a third of farmers expect farm input prices to rise by 8 percent or more in the upcoming year, which would be more than four times the average rise over the last 10 years.
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A drop in the Capital Investment Index for May is weighted by producers鈥 reluctance to invest in construction, which took a harder hit than their willingness to invest in equipment.
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Farmers expect a strong bottom line this year in spite of rising input costs. The data shows a greater willingness to buy equipment and attend in-person events.
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In March, producers continued to be relatively optimistic about making farm machinery purchases and capital investments in their farming operations.
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The Farm Capital Investment Index, which assesses farmers鈥 willingness to make significant investments, is the third-highest it has been since data collection began in 2015. It is 16 points higher than before the pandemic began.
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The index that measures farmers鈥 willingness to buy equipment held strong at its record high of 93. The percentage of farmers expecting to increase their machinery purchases also held at its highest level of the last year.
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Farmers feel good about their financial positions, according to the Ag Economy Barometer. The Farm Capital Investment Index, which measures producers鈥 willingness to make big purchases, hit a record high in December.
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While farmers remained relatively optimistic about making large capital investments in their operations soon, the survey revealed shifts upward among groups intending to hang onto their equipment a bit longer or reduce purchases.
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Fewer farmers report a reluctance to spend on equipment and more report a likelihood that they will.
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The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose 27 points to a reading of 183 in October and set an all-time high for
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The capital investment index, which reflects farmers’ willingness to make big purchases, rose to its highest reading in 2020.
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The barometer and its two sub-indices posted their most positive readings since February, when record highs were established and before the pandemic began. The Farm Capital Investment Index improved by five points.
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In this most unusual year, when farmers cannot kick the tires at farm shows, they are defining their preferences for getting business information.
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Farmers鈥 perspective regarding whether or not now is a good time to make large investments in their farming operation improved markedly over the last two months.
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The Ag Economy Barometer suggests farmers felt less cautious about big expenses in April than they did in May. The survey overall shows subtle improvements.
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Data released Tuesday shows that the optimism farmers felt after the 2016 election has all but faded as a result of uncertainty around COVID-19.
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The survey by Purdue University and the CME Group captured an anxiety among farmers that is indicative of the national mood.
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The Farm Capital Investment Index, which assesses farmers鈥 willingness to invest in equipment and other capital, continues to strengthen.
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Farmers have become more optimistic about the future in past months. That optimism has not yet influenced their willingness to make capital investments.
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The Ag Economy Barometer drifted sideways in December, but the Farm Capital Investment Index concluded 2019 at the highest index value for the year.
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Agricultural economy sentiment in November matched its highest reading of 2019, which included a big bump in how willing farmers are to invest in equipment and other capital.
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Producers who responded to the Purdue University survey in October thought more favorably about making big investments. The index rose to within eight points of its peak.
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The Rural Mainstreet Index for September climbed above growth neutral. The farm equipment-sales index also improved.
Read moreConcerns about economic conditions led to a dip in the Ag Economy Barometer from February to March. The Index of
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